MLB Picks · August 5, 2026
San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Strong Lean
Padres ML
-118
77
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
San Diego Padres · Away
Casey Mize (RHP)
Arizona Diamondbacks · Home
Mitch Bratt (LHP)
AI Analysis
Casey Mize (2.70 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) is dominant and has a massive edge over Mitch Bratt (5.23 ERA, 1.84 WHIP in 20.2 IP — clearly still being stretched). Mize's sub-1.00 WHIP is elite and the Padres are scorching hot — 8-2 in L10, 5.2 R/G in L10, hitting .308 as a team recently with Merrill (.404 L14) and France (.327 L14) leading the charge. Arizona hits RHP poorly at .229/.677 and Bratt's tiny sample with ugly numbers is a major liability. The -118 price is neutral and the edge is clear.
Concerns
- •Bratt only 20.2 IP — very small sample, could improve or collapse
- •AZ lineup has functional bats (Vargas .366 L14, Waldschmidt .372 L14)
- •Padres vs LHP only .241/.675 — below average split against Bratt
- •AZ at home in a dome environment offers some comfort
Factor Breakdown