San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers

This is the most lopsided matchup of the slate. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.67 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 90 K in 97.2 IP) is a true ace facing Griffin Canning (7.09 ERA, 1.66 WHIP), who has been one of the worst starters in baseball. Los Angeles is the best team in baseball (58-31, 8-2 L10, 7.1 R/G last 10G, OPS .893 L5) with a stacked lineup hitting .272/.804 vs RHP. Multiple Dodgers are red hot (Freeman, Betts). San Diego is on a 7-game losing streak, hitting only .222/.679 vs RHP, with a 7.09 ERA starter. The -259 price is steep (significant negative value), which prevents a maximum conviction rating, but the underlying edge is overwhelming across all three factors.