MLB Picks · July 4, 2026
St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs
Strong Lean
Cubs ML
-162
74
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
St. Louis Cardinals · Away
Kyle Leahy (RHP)
Chicago Cubs · Home
Shota Imanaga (LHP)
AI Analysis
The Cubs have been dominant offensively (7.4 R/G over the L10, OPS .833 L5) with multiple lineup contributors red-hot (Crow-Armstrong, Swanson, Suzuki all 🔥). Imanaga is a solid starter (4.30 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) with reliable command, while Leahy is a back-end starter (4.09 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) who has given up plenty of contact. Chicago's home record, superior recent form (8-2 L10), and hot offense all align to make this a strong lean. The Cubs' lineup vs RHP is .239/.742 — not elite in splits but their recent production speaks for itself. The -162 price is steep but the data supports the edge.
Concerns
- •STL is 46-39 and a quality team — not a pushover
- •-162 price is significant negative value territory
- •Imanaga's ERA has ballooned to 4.30 — not the ace-level performer from prior year
- •CHC top hitters (Bregman, Busch) are both ❄️ in recent form
- •STL has multiple hot hitters (Winn, Nootbaar) recently
Factor Breakdown