St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs

Chicago holds a clear edge driven primarily by the starting pitching matchup and offensive splits. Liberatore (5.33 ERA, 1.55 WHIP) has been one of the weaker starters in baseball, and the Cubs lineup hits LHP significantly better (.259/.777 vs LHP vs .238/.738 vs RHP) — a meaningful split advantage. Assad (4.53 ERA) isn't elite, but he outperforms Liberatore. The Cubs are also running very hot offensively (6.4 R/G last 10) with multiple lineup contributors on fire (Crow-Armstrong .907 OPS/.367 L14, Swanson .340 L14, Suzuki .310 L14). Negative value at -149 caps this to a lean rather than a strong play.