MLB Picks · September 25, 2026
St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers
Lean
Milwaukee Brewers ML
-192
68
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
St. Louis Cardinals · Away
Michael McGreevy (RHP)
Milwaukee Brewers · Home
Robert Gasser (LHP)
AI Analysis
Milwaukee is the class of this matchup — 100-59, 7-3 L10, W2 streak — and their lineup vs RHP splits are excellent (.263/.757). They have genuine firepower (Bauers .884 OPS, Chourio .828, Turang .806 OPS with .375 L14 🔥, Ortiz .340 L14 🔥). Gasser (ERA 4.01) is not elite but McGreevy (ERA 3.84, WHIP 1.25) has a comparable number — however St. Louis' offense has completely collapsed to just 3.0 R/G in their last 10 games (AVG .198/.545). Multiple Cardinals are ice cold (Herrera, Burleson, Walker, Winn). The combination of Milwaukee's dominance, Cardinals' offensive collapse, and home advantage makes this a solid lean even at -192.
Concerns
- •-192 price is in 'slight negative value' range — requires a clear edge
- •Gasser's 4.01 ERA is not ace-level; Cardinals could steal a game with their better starters
- •Milwaukee has its own cold spots (Yelich, Frelick)
Factor Breakdown