MLB Picks · September 23, 2026
St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Strong Lean
Pirates ML
-142
71
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
St. Louis Cardinals · Away
Matthew Liberatore (LHP)
Pittsburgh Pirates · Home
Lake Bachar (RHP)
AI Analysis
Pittsburgh has strong momentum with a W5 streak, 6-4 L10, and is the better team at 80-77. Lake Bachar has an excellent ERA (3.56) and WHIP (1.14) in 83.1 IP — a legitimate quality start threat. St. Louis counters with Liberatore, who has a bloated ERA (5.36) and WHIP (1.49) over nearly 150 innings. The Cardinals are also in terrible recent form — just 3.6 R/G over the last 10 games with a miserable .590 OPS L10. Pittsburgh's offense has Brandon Lowe and Oneil Cruz both hot, and the -142 price is reasonable for a team on a 5-game win streak against a cold Cardinals squad.
Concerns
- •Bachar's W-L record is 1-4 despite strong ERA/WHIP — run support has been an issue
- •Cardinals hit LHP at .700 OPS — not terrible
- •PIT offense also dips vs LHP (.700 OPS split)
- •Reynolds, Mangum, O'Hearn all cold in L14
- •-142 price slightly limits value but still reasonable
Factor Breakdown