MLB Picks · September 22, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees
Strong Lean
Tampa Bay Rays ML
+109
71
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Tampa Bay Rays · Away
Nick Martinez (RHP)
New York Yankees · Home
Carlos Rodón (LHP)
AI Analysis
Nick Martinez has been elite this season (2.94 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 15-4) and represents a clear pitching edge over a limited-inning Rodón (76.1 IP, returning from injury/rest). The Rays are the better team at 95-60 (.613) vs the Yankees' 89-66 (.574) and come in on a W2 streak with a strong L10 (8-2). The Yankees lineup struggles vs RHP (.229/.713), and while Ben Rice and Goldschmidt are hot, several core hitters (McMahon, Caballero) are ice cold. At +109, the Rays offer genuine value as the quality team getting plus money.
Concerns
- •Rodón hasn't pitched many innings but has solid strikeout stuff (83 K in 76.1 IP)
- •Yankees L10 6-4 with hot offense (5.6 R/G last 10 games)
- •Rays L5 offense has slumped (.223 AVG, .676 OPS)
- •Yandy Díaz ice cold L14 (.186)
Factor Breakdown