MLB Picks · September 23, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees
Lean
Yankees ML
-136
62
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Tampa Bay Rays · Away
Ian Seymour (LHP)
New York Yankees · Home
Gerrit Cole (RHP)
AI Analysis
Gerrit Cole (3.63 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) gives New York a clear pitching edge over Seymour (4.38 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), though both are competent starters. The Yankees have the best team ERA in this slate (3.14) and their lineup hits LHP at .737 OPS with Jazz Chisholm Jr. scorching hot (.366 L14). Tampa Bay is an excellent team at 96-61 with 8-2 L10, but their offense has cooled to 4.8 R/G with multiple stars cold (Caminero, Díaz both ❄️). The -136 price for New York at home with Cole on the mound is fair but not exceptional value given Tampa's quality.
Concerns
- •Tampa Bay is a 96-win caliber team and one of the best in baseball
- •Rays L10 8-2 — best form in this matchup
- •Seymour has high K rate (155 K) and competitive WHIP
- •Yankees L10 only 5-5 and on L1 streak
- •Wells, McMahon cold for NYY; core Rays bats can get hot quickly
Factor Breakdown