MLB Picks · September 24, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees
Strong Lean
Yankees ML
-156
79
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Tampa Bay Rays · Away
Ian Seymour (LHP)
New York Yankees · Home
Cam Schlittler (RHP)
AI Analysis
Cam Schlittler is having an elite season — 1.94 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 234 strikeouts in 190.2 IP (14-6) — making him the best starter on this entire slate. The Yankees hit LHP at .246/.736, giving them a meaningful split edge against Seymour. New York's offense (5.07 R/G, .732 OPS) leads a powerful lineup with Ben Rice (🔥 .306 L14, 41 HR), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (🔥 .366 L14), and Paul Goldschmidt (🔥 .297 L14). Tampa Bay's top hitters are largely frozen — Caminero ❄️, Yandy Diaz ❄️ — and their L5 offense has dropped to 4.7 R/G at .649 OPS. The Yankees are 91-67 and playing at home. The -156 price is fair given Schlittler's dominance.
Concerns
- •Rays are a 96-62 team — elite roster capable of breaking through any pitcher
- •Seymour has a strong K rate (155 K in 127.1 IP) and 1.17 WHIP
- •Tampa's team ERA (3.62) and RA/G (4.16) show overall quality
- •Yankees at -156 — slight negative line value
- •Rays L10 is 7-3 despite losing streak — well-positioned team
Factor Breakdown