MLB Picks · September 26, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies
Lean
Rays ML
-107
68
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Tampa Bay Rays · Away
Griffin Jax (RHP)
Philadelphia Phillies · Home
TBD
AI Analysis
Philadelphia's TBD starter is a significant unknown that skews this heavily toward Tampa Bay. Jax is a reliable arm (ERA 3.62, WHIP 1.19, 109.1 IP, 115 K) while PHI sends an unknown to the mound. The Rays are a 97-63 team with elite RA/G (4.13) and strong overall talent. The Phillies, while talented, have gone L3 streak, only 4-6 in last 10, and their offense has collapsed in recent games (3.0 R/G last 10, .195 AVG, .592 OPS). Multiple PHI core bats are cold (Schwarber ❄️, Arraez ❄️, Marsh ❄️, Realmuto ❄️). At near-even odds (-107), Tampa Bay offers solid value given pitching and form advantages.
Concerns
- •PHI starter is TBD — unknown could be a quality option or an opener
- •TB's offense has also cooled recently (3.7 R/G last 10, .578 OPS) with multiple cold bats
- •Splits unavailable for TB offense vs unknown PHI pitcher
- •PHI has legitimate power when clicking (Harper, Schwarber, Bohm 🔥)
- •Citizens Bank Park can be hitter-friendly
Factor Breakdown