MLB Picks · August 22, 2026
Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins
Lean
Marlins ML
-175
64
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Washington Nationals · Away
Jake Irvin (RHP)
Miami Marlins · Home
Eury Pérez (RHP)
AI Analysis
Eury Pérez (3.23 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) is a clear pitching advantage over Jake Irvin (5.80 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 2-7 record). Washington is in poor form — 2-8 L10, on a 2-game losing streak, and scoring just 3.5 R/G in L5. The Nationals also have multiple cold hitters (Nuñez, Crews, Vivas all ❄️). Miami's offense has several players trending hot (Marsee, Sanoja, Conine), and the Marlins hold a home advantage. The -175 price is a slight concern for value, but the pitching gap and Washington's struggles justify the play.
Concerns
- •MIA offense has cooled recently (3.9 R/G in L5, .231/.684)
- •-175 price is slight negative value
- •MIA team ERA 3.90 — not elite overall
- •Several MIA hitters cold: Lopez, Hernández, Caissie ❄️
- •WSH has CJ Abrams (OPS .884) back if activated
Factor Breakdown