MLB Picks · August 23, 2026
Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins
Strong Lean
Marlins ML
-157
71
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Washington Nationals · Away
Jackson Kent (LHP)
Miami Marlins · Home
Janson Junk (RHP)
AI Analysis
Jackson Kent is a disaster on the mound — 9.39 ERA, 2.48 WHIP in just 7.2 IP, making this one of the most lopsided pitching matchups of the day. Washington is also in terrible form (2-8 in L10, L3 streak, only 3.1 R/G in their last 10 games) with multiple hitters ice cold. Janson Junk's 4.37 ERA is modest, but he's facing a Washington lineup that has been dreadful. Miami's offense has been steady, with hot bats in Sanoja and Marsee. At -157, the price is not ideal but the pitching edge is too large to ignore.
Concerns
- •Junk's 4.37 ERA and 1.36 WHIP is uninspiring for a 'pitching edge' game
- •Miami -157 is slight negative value territory
- •Marlins lineup hits LHP better than RHP — splitting against their own starter's handedness advantage
- •CJ Abrams (OPS .884) and Ruiz (.340 L14) can do damage
Factor Breakdown