🎓 NCAAF Projections
Week 10, week to date — projected score and margin for every FBS-vs-FBS game across all of this week's game days, compared to the market line at the moment each projection was generated.
Projected scores for every FBS matchup this week. This model is new and unproven — we publish it so its accuracy can be checked in public, not because it beats the market. Early testing suggests an average miss of roughly 12 points per game, and real accuracy is likely worse until we have a few weeks of results. FCS opponents don't have ratings yet, so those games aren't listed. Market lines shown are from the time we generated the projection, not kickoff. Gap is how far our projection sits from the market — positive means we like the home team more than the market does, negative means less.
| Matchup | Score | Model / Market | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Akron Zips vs Ohio Bobcats Tue, Nov 3, 7:00 PM | 19.3–31.6 | +12.3 +13.5 | +1.2 | ✓ Correct Final 20-28 · err 4.3pts |
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs Buffalo Bulls Tue, Nov 3, 8:00 PM | 30.7–18.8 | -11.9 -6.5 | +5.4 | ✗ Incorrect Final 31-34 · err 14.9pts |
Massachusetts Minutemen vs Ball State Cardinals Wed, Nov 4, 7:00 PM | 29.6–22.1 | -7.5 -3.5 | +4 | ✗ Incorrect Final 31-30 · err 6.5pts |
Sacramento State Hornets vs Toledo Rockets Wed, Nov 4, 7:00 PM | 15.6–38.9 | +23.3 +25.5 | +2.2 | ✓ Correct Final 17-20 · err 20.3pts |
Eastern Michigan Eagles vs Central Michigan Chippewas Wed, Nov 4, 7:30 PM · Neutral site | 22.5–21.4 | -1.1 -1.5 | -0.4 | ✓ Correct Final 7-35 · err 29.1pts |
Florida Atlantic Owls vs UTSA Roadrunners Thu, Nov 5, 7:30 PM | 36.8–30.4 | -6.4 +6.5 | +12.9 | ✓ Correct Final 60-29 · err 24.6pts |
Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs James Madison Dukes Thu, Nov 5, 8:00 PM | 21.6–36.1 | +14.5 +14.5 | 0 | No lean Final 23-54 · err 16.5pts |
SMU Mustangs vs Virginia Tech Hokies Fri, Nov 6, 7:00 PM | 32.4–23.8 | -8.6 -6.5 | +2.1 | Not final |
East Carolina Pirates vs South Florida Bulls Fri, Nov 6, 7:30 PM | 22.1–21.2 | -0.9 -2.5 | -1.6 | Not final |
Illinois Fighting Illini vs Nebraska Cornhuskers Fri, Nov 6, 8:00 PM | 25.9–23.9 | -2 +4.5 | +6.5 | Not final |
Nevada Wolf Pack vs New Mexico Lobos Fri, Nov 6, 9:00 PM | 22.4–22.6 | +0.2 +10 | +9.8 | Not final |
Arizona Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs Fri, Nov 6, 10:15 PM | 31.9–12.3 | -19.6 -7.5 | +12.1 | Not final |