🎓 NCAAF Projections
Week 9, week to date — projected score and margin for every FBS-vs-FBS game across all of this week's game days, compared to the market line at the moment each projection was generated.
Season-to-date ATS record
197-208-1
406 graded — no_market/no_lean games excluded
Season avg margin error
13.1 pts
over 454 settled games — still in-sample, see note below
Projected scores for every FBS matchup this week. This model is new and unproven — we publish it so its accuracy can be checked in public, not because it beats the market. Early testing suggests an average miss of roughly 12 points per game, and real accuracy is likely worse until we have a few weeks of results. FCS opponents don't have ratings yet, so those games aren't listed. Market lines shown are from the time we generated the projection, not kickoff. Gap is how far our projection sits from the market — positive means we like the home team more than the market does, negative means less.
Week-to-date ATS record
26-30
56 graded — no_market/no_lean games excluded
Avg margin error
14 pts
over 56 settled games — still in-sample, see note above
| Matchup | Score | Model / Market | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Delaware Blue Hens Tue, Oct 27, 7:00 PM | 28.4–25.3 | -3.1 -1.5 | +1.6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 21-35 · err 17.1pts |
Missouri State Bears vs Sam Houston Bearkats Tue, Oct 27, 8:00 PM | 30.1–21.5 | -8.6 -5.5 | +3.1 | ✓ Correct Final 24-3 · err 12.4pts |
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Kennesaw State Owls Wed, Oct 28, 7:00 PM | 26.6–20.2 | -6.4 -2.5 | +3.9 | ✗ Incorrect Final 28-44 · err 22.4pts |
New Mexico State Aggies vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks Wed, Oct 28, 8:00 PM | 18.4–30.7 | +12.3 +3.5 | -8.8 | ✓ Correct Final 0-24 · err 11.7pts |
North Texas Mean Green vs Florida Atlantic Owls Thu, Oct 29, 7:30 PM | 43.9–29.8 | -14.1 -13.5 | +0.6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 48-41 · err 7.1pts |
James Madison Dukes vs Troy Trojans Thu, Oct 29, 7:30 PM | 36.3–16.7 | -19.6 -18.5 | +1.1 | ✗ Incorrect Final 21-24 · err 22.6pts |
Charlotte 49ers vs Tulane Green Wave Fri, Oct 30, 7:00 PM | 22.4–29.2 | +6.8 +8.5 | +1.7 | ✓ Correct Final 31-38 · err 0.2pts |
UCF Knights vs Baylor Bears Fri, Oct 30, 7:30 PM | 28.5–21.0 | -7.5 +2.5 | +10 | ✗ Incorrect Final 9-41 · err 39.5pts |
Sacramento State Hornets vs Kent State Golden Flashes Fri, Oct 30, 10:30 PM | 18.2–27.2 | +9 +7.5 | -1.5 | ✗ Incorrect Final 31-10 · err 30.0pts |
Navy Midshipmen vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM · Neutral site | 10.1–46.4 | +36.3 +30.5 | -5.8 | ✗ Incorrect Final 13-35 · err 14.3pts |
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Arizona Wildcats Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM | 29.1–24.9 | -4.2 -3.5 | +0.7 | ✓ Correct Final 34-26 · err 3.8pts |
Syracuse Orange vs SMU Mustangs Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM | 21.5–36.0 | +14.5 +9.5 | -5 | ✗ Incorrect Final 30-27 · err 17.5pts |
Iowa Hawkeyes vs Wisconsin Badgers Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM | 24.0–16.5 | -7.5 -2.5 | +5 | ✓ Correct Final 30-0 · err 22.5pts |
NC State Wolfpack vs California Golden Bears Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM | 36.9–20.6 | -16.3 -9.5 | +6.8 | ✓ Correct Final 31-10 · err 4.7pts |
Duke Blue Devils vs Boston College Eagles Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM | 28.8–16.9 | -11.9 -7.5 | +4.4 | ✓ Correct Final 47-2 · err 33.1pts |
Maryland Terrapins vs Illinois Fighting Illini Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM | 25.3–33.2 | +7.9 +2.5 | -5.4 | ✓ Correct Final 17-20 · err 4.9pts |
South Florida Bulls vs UAB Blazers Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM | 29.2–14.0 | -15.2 -7.5 | +7.7 | ✓ Correct Final 30-10 · err 4.8pts |
Western Michigan Broncos vs Bowling Green Falcons Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM | 34.7–11.8 | -22.9 -13.5 | +9.4 | ✗ Incorrect Final 23-10 · err 9.9pts |
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs Michigan Wolverines Sat, Oct 31, 12:30 PM | 20.6–27.4 | +6.8 +16.5 | +9.7 | ✓ Correct Final 21-28 · err 0.2pts |
Ole Miss Rebels vs Auburn Tigers Sat, Oct 31, 12:45 PM | 35.7–19.4 | -16.3 -11.5 | +4.8 | ✓ Correct Final 45-15 · err 13.7pts |
Old Dominion Monarchs vs Marshall Thundering Herd Sat, Oct 31, 1:00 PM | 24.1–22.1 | -2 +2.5 | +4.5 | ✗ Incorrect Final 23-36 · err 15.0pts |
Colorado Buffaloes vs Kansas State Wildcats Sat, Oct 31, 2:00 PM | 21.2–30.2 | +9 -2.5 | -11.5 | ✗ Incorrect Final 27-24 · err 12.0pts |
Georgia State Panthers vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers Sat, Oct 31, 2:00 PM | 35.9–20.7 | -15.2 -3.5 | +11.7 | ✗ Incorrect Final 20-31 · err 26.2pts |
Air Force Falcons vs UConn Huskies Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM | 27.9–25.9 | -2 +1.5 | +3.5 | ✓ Correct Final 35-26 · err 7.0pts |
East Carolina Pirates vs Temple Owls Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM | 24.7–27.1 | +2.4 -4.5 | -6.9 | ✗ Incorrect Final 17-9 · err 10.4pts |
South Alabama Jaguars vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM | 30.7–29.8 | -0.9 +6.5 | +7.4 | ✗ Incorrect Final 20-35 · err 15.9pts |
Louisville Cardinals vs Stanford Cardinal Sat, Oct 31, 3:15 PM | 44.1–16.8 | -27.3 -22.5 | +4.8 | ✓ Correct Final 52-24 · err 0.7pts |
Georgia Bulldogs vs Florida Gators Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM · Neutral site | 39.0–24.7 | -14.3 -11.5 | +2.8 | ✓ Correct Final 27-8 · err 4.7pts |
Indiana Hoosiers vs Minnesota Golden Gophers Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM | 37.7–7.1 | -30.6 -20.5 | +10.1 | ✗ Incorrect Final 23-16 · err 23.6pts |
BYU Cougars vs Arizona State Sun Devils Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM | 41.6–14.3 | -27.3 -16.5 | +10.8 | ✗ Incorrect Final 27-20 · err 20.3pts |
Oregon Ducks vs Northwestern Wildcats Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM | 29.1–22.7 | -6.4 -3.5 | +2.9 | ✓ Correct Final 34-26 · err 1.6pts |
TCU Horned Frogs vs Kansas Jayhawks Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM | 27.2–17.5 | -9.7 -6.5 | +3.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 22-16 · err 3.7pts |
Utah State Aggies vs Colorado State Rams Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM | 30.6–29.7 | -0.9 -7.5 | -6.6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 31-14 · err 16.1pts |
North Dakota State Bison vs UTEP Miners Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM | 38.4–6.7 | -31.7 -24.5 | +7.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 31-7 · err 7.7pts |
Liberty Flames vs Florida International Panthers Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM | 28.3–10.9 | -17.4 -13.5 | +3.9 | ✓ Correct Final 49-10 · err 21.6pts |
UL Monroe Warhawks vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM | 27.6–30.0 | +2.4 +3.5 | +1.1 | ✗ Incorrect Final 21-35 · err 11.6pts |
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Utah Utes Sat, Oct 31, 3:45 PM | 24.4–32.3 | +7.9 +7 | -0.9 | ✓ Correct Final 25-49 · err 16.1pts |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs Virginia Cavaliers Sat, Oct 31, 3:45 PM | 35.6–16.0 | -19.6 -12.5 | +7.1 | ✓ Correct Final 51-7 · err 24.4pts |
San José State Spartans vs New Mexico Lobos Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM | 15.4–28.8 | +13.4 +14.5 | +1.1 | ✓ Correct Final 16-21 · err 8.4pts |
UCLA Bruins vs Nevada Wolf Pack Sat, Oct 31, 4:15 PM | 33.8–14.2 | -19.6 -22.5 | -2.9 | ✗ Incorrect Final 27-0 · err 7.4pts |
Oklahoma Sooners vs South Carolina Gamecocks Sat, Oct 31, 4:15 PM | 27.9–21.5 | -6.4 -3.5 | +2.9 | ✗ Incorrect Final 25-42 · err 23.4pts |
Penn State Nittany Lions vs Purdue Boilermakers Sat, Oct 31, 4:15 PM | 31.9–23.3 | -8.6 -10.5 | -1.9 | ✗ Incorrect Final 31-17 · err 5.4pts |
Georgia Southern Eagles vs App State Mountaineers Sat, Oct 31, 6:30 PM | 30.1–19.3 | -10.8 -6 | +4.8 | ✓ Correct Final 19-3 · err 5.2pts |
Iowa State Cyclones vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM | 23.8–32.8 | +9 +9.5 | +0.5 | ✓ Correct Final 51-49 · err 11.0pts |
Florida State Seminoles vs Clemson Tigers Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM | 34.9–15.3 | -19.6 -6 | +13.6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 24-36 · err 31.6pts |
San Diego State Aztecs vs Washington State Cougars Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM | 30.8–23.3 | -7.5 -2.5 | +5 | ✓ Correct Final 26-20 · err 1.5pts |
North Carolina Tar Heels vs Miami Hurricanes Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM | 19.9–34.4 | +14.5 +14 | -0.5 | ✗ Incorrect Final 35-38 · err 11.5pts |
USC Trojans vs Ohio State Buckeyes Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM | 25.6–29.1 | +3.5 +6.5 | +3 | ✓ Correct Final 30-18 · err 15.5pts |
Texas Longhorns vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM | 33.1–20.1 | -13 -20.5 | -7.5 | ✗ Incorrect Final 31-3 · err 15.0pts |
Pittsburgh Panthers vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM | 35.3–19.0 | -16.3 -7.5 | +8.8 | ✓ Correct Final 34-11 · err 6.7pts |
Arkansas Razorbacks vs Missouri Tigers Sat, Oct 31, 7:45 PM | 19.0–29.1 | +10.1 +10.5 | +0.4 | ✗ Incorrect Final 10-34 · err 13.9pts |
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Washington Huskies Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM | 34.7–15.1 | -19.6 -7.5 | +12.1 | ✗ Incorrect Final 10-17 · err 26.6pts |
Memphis Tigers vs Army Black Knights Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM | 35.2–23.3 | -11.9 -5.5 | +6.4 | ✓ Correct Final 49-22 · err 15.1pts |
Boise State Broncos vs Texas State Bobcats Sat, Oct 31, 10:00 PM | 39.3–21.9 | -17.4 -10.5 | +6.9 | ✗ Incorrect Final 46-45 · err 16.4pts |
UNLV Rebels vs Northern Illinois Huskies Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM | 38.0–11.8 | -26.2 -21.5 | +4.7 | ✗ Incorrect Final 31-24 · err 19.2pts |
Fresno State Bulldogs vs Oregon State Beavers Sat, Oct 31, 11:00 PM | 26.1–30.7 | +4.6 +5.5 | +0.9 | ✓ Correct Final 38-22 · err 20.6pts |