🎓 NCAAF Projections
Week 8, week to date — projected score and margin for every FBS-vs-FBS game across all of this week's game days, compared to the market line at the moment each projection was generated.
Season-to-date ATS record
197-208-1
406 graded — no_market/no_lean games excluded
Season avg margin error
13.1 pts
over 454 settled games — still in-sample, see note below
Projected scores for every FBS matchup this week. This model is new and unproven — we publish it so its accuracy can be checked in public, not because it beats the market. Early testing suggests an average miss of roughly 12 points per game, and real accuracy is likely worse until we have a few weeks of results. FCS opponents don't have ratings yet, so those games aren't listed. Market lines shown are from the time we generated the projection, not kickoff. Gap is how far our projection sits from the market — positive means we like the home team more than the market does, negative means less.
Week-to-date ATS record
30-26
56 graded — no_market/no_lean games excluded
Avg margin error
11.9 pts
over 56 settled games — still in-sample, see note above
| Matchup | Score | Model / Market | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida International Panthers vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Tue, Oct 20, 7:00 PM | 29.2–11.8 | -17.4 -10.5 | +6.9 | ✗ Incorrect Final 23-26 · err 20.4pts |
Delaware Blue Hens vs Missouri State Bears Tue, Oct 20, 7:00 PM | 31.7–18.7 | -13 -2.5 | +10.5 | ✓ Correct Final 61-38 · err 10.0pts |
Marshall Thundering Herd vs South Alabama Jaguars Tue, Oct 20, 7:30 PM | 27.4–37.5 | +10.1 +3.5 | -6.6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 20-13 · err 17.1pts |
Sam Houston Bearkats vs New Mexico State Aggies Wed, Oct 21, 8:00 PM | 27.5–17.8 | -9.7 +2.5 | +12.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 24-30 · err 15.7pts |
App State Mountaineers vs James Madison Dukes Thu, Oct 22, 7:00 PM | 24.5–30.2 | +5.7 +11.5 | +5.8 | ✓ Correct Final 34-31 · err 8.7pts |
Kennesaw State Owls vs Liberty Flames Thu, Oct 22, 7:00 PM | 20.7–24.2 | +3.5 +9.5 | +6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 6-34 · err 24.5pts |
Memphis Tigers vs East Carolina Pirates Thu, Oct 22, 7:30 PM | 37.4–14.5 | -22.9 -10.5 | +12.4 | ✗ Incorrect Final 41-34 · err 15.9pts |
Virginia Cavaliers vs Duke Blue Devils Fri, Oct 23, 7:00 PM | 28.1–19.5 | -8.6 -2.5 | +6.1 | ✗ Incorrect Final 16-19 · err 11.6pts |
UConn Huskies vs Massachusetts Minutemen Fri, Oct 23, 7:00 PM | 34.3–19.1 | -15.2 -14.5 | +0.7 | ✓ Correct Final 35-16 · err 3.8pts |
Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Army Black Knights Fri, Oct 23, 8:30 PM | 27.8–24.7 | -3.1 -1.5 | +1.6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 35-38 · err 6.1pts |
Wyoming Cowboys vs Air Force Falcons Fri, Oct 23, 9:00 PM | 18.3–25.1 | +6.8 +5.5 | -1.3 | ✗ Incorrect Final 28-14 · err 20.8pts |
Stanford Cardinal vs NC State Wolfpack Fri, Oct 23, 10:30 PM | 25.4–32.2 | +6.8 +6.5 | -0.3 | ✗ Incorrect Final 31-28 · err 9.8pts |
Miami Hurricanes vs Pittsburgh Panthers Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM | 41.4–14.1 | -27.3 -20.5 | +6.8 | ✓ Correct Final 52-23 · err 1.7pts |
Michigan Wolverines vs Indiana Hoosiers Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM | 16.8–25.8 | +9 +7.5 | -1.5 | ✗ Incorrect Final 6-13 · err 2.0pts |
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM | 24.3–34.4 | +10.1 +11.5 | +1.4 | ✓ Correct Final 37-24 · err 23.1pts |
Auburn Tigers vs LSU Tigers Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM | 23.6–28.2 | +4.6 +7 | +2.4 | ✗ Incorrect Final 17-38 · err 16.4pts |
SMU Mustangs vs California Golden Bears Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM | 37.5–14.6 | -22.9 -18.5 | +4.4 | ✓ Correct Final 59-20 · err 16.1pts |
Northwestern Wildcats vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM | 40.8–15.7 | -25.1 -14.5 | +10.6 | ✓ Correct Final 42-14 · err 2.9pts |
TCU Horned Frogs vs West Virginia Mountaineers Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM | 29.8–23.4 | -6.4 -10.5 | -4.1 | ✓ Correct Final 20-24 · err 10.4pts |
Florida Atlantic Owls vs Rice Owls Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM | 38.9–17.1 | -21.8 -8.5 | +13.3 | ✗ Incorrect Final 51-49 · err 19.8pts |
Toledo Rockets vs Western Michigan Broncos Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM | 27.1–22.9 | -4.2 -2.5 | +1.7 | ✓ Correct Final 45-38 · err 2.8pts |
Kansas Jayhawks vs Baylor Bears Sat, Oct 24, 1:00 PM | 25.2–24.3 | -0.9 +1.5 | +2.4 | ✓ Correct Final 25-24 · err 0.1pts |
Kent State Golden Flashes vs Akron Zips Sat, Oct 24, 1:00 PM | 28.1–18.4 | -9.7 -3 | +6.7 | ✓ Correct Final 35-20 · err 5.3pts |
Central Michigan Chippewas vs Miami (OH) RedHawks Sat, Oct 24, 1:00 PM | 22.4–23.7 | +1.3 +3.5 | +2.2 | ✓ Correct Final 27-28 · err 0.3pts |
Illinois Fighting Illini vs Oregon Ducks Sat, Oct 24, 3:00 PM | 25.9–32.7 | +6.8 +9.5 | +2.7 | ✓ Correct Final 21-10 · err 17.8pts |
UCF Knights vs BYU Cougars Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM | 20.0–30.1 | +10.1 +7 | -3.1 | ✗ Incorrect Final 39-31 · err 18.1pts |
UCLA Bruins vs Michigan State Spartans Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM | 28.9–19.2 | -9.7 -15.5 | -5.8 | ✗ Incorrect Final 28-10 · err 8.3pts |
South Carolina Gamecocks vs Tennessee Volunteers Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM | 30.8–24.4 | -6.4 -2.5 | +3.9 | ✓ Correct Final 27-24 · err 3.4pts |
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Texas A&M Aggies Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM | 40.2–12.9 | -27.3 -13.5 | +13.8 | ✗ Incorrect Final 31-20 · err 16.3pts |
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Iowa Hawkeyes Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM | 23.4–23.6 | +0.2 +7.5 | +7.3 | ✓ Correct Final 13-10 · err 3.2pts |
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Oklahoma Sooners Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM | 31.2–18.2 | -13 +2.5 | +15.5 | ✗ Incorrect Final 15-23 · err 21.0pts |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Boston College Eagles Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM | 30.8–16.7 | -14.1 -6.5 | +7.6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 27-49 · err 36.1pts |
Navy Midshipmen vs North Texas Mean Green Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM | 28.1–34.9 | +6.8 +3 | -3.8 | ✓ Correct Final 39-49 · err 3.2pts |
Northern Illinois Huskies vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM | 22.4–21.5 | -0.9 +3.5 | +4.4 | ✗ Incorrect Final 21-56 · err 35.9pts |
Ball State Cardinals vs Sacramento State Hornets Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM | 34.3–18.0 | -16.3 -14.5 | +1.8 | ✓ Correct Final 34-17 · err 0.7pts |
Buffalo Bulls vs Bowling Green Falcons Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM | 26.2–19.8 | -6.4 -3 | +3.4 | ✓ Correct Final 31-24 · err 0.6pts |
Arizona State Sun Devils vs Kansas State Wildcats Sat, Oct 24, 3:45 PM | 26.3–33.1 | +6.8 +1.5 | -5.3 | ✗ Incorrect Final 28-17 · err 17.8pts |
Ohio Bobcats vs Eastern Michigan Eagles Sat, Oct 24, 4:00 PM | 30.5–18.6 | -11.9 -10 | +1.9 | ✗ Incorrect Final 24-20 · err 7.9pts |
Troy Trojans vs UL Monroe Warhawks Sat, Oct 24, 4:00 PM | 41.7–13.3 | -28.4 -12.5 | +15.9 | ✗ Incorrect Final 14-21 · err 35.4pts |
Nevada Wolf Pack vs San José State Spartans Sat, Oct 24, 5:00 PM | 25.7–19.3 | -6.4 -6.5 | -0.1 | ✗ Incorrect Final 28-13 · err 8.6pts |
Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Sat, Oct 24, 5:00 PM | 21.7–30.7 | +9 +10 | +1 | ✓ Correct Final 35-31 · err 13.0pts |
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Old Dominion Monarchs Sat, Oct 24, 5:00 PM | 35.5–14.8 | -20.7 -13.5 | +7.2 | ✓ Correct Final 26-0 · err 5.3pts |
Washington State Cougars vs Boise State Broncos Sat, Oct 24, 6:00 PM | 15.2–36.3 | +21.1 +14.5 | -6.6 | ✓ Correct Final 10-31 · err 0.1pts |
Colorado State Rams vs San Diego State Aztecs Sat, Oct 24, 6:30 PM | 40.8–27.8 | -13 +1.5 | +14.5 | ✓ Correct Final 56-49 · err 6.0pts |
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Colorado Buffaloes Sat, Oct 24, 7:00 PM | 37.1–15.3 | -21.8 -13.5 | +8.3 | ✓ Correct Final 57-24 · err 11.2pts |
Clemson Tigers vs Virginia Tech Hokies Sat, Oct 24, 7:00 PM | 21.2–29.1 | +7.9 -2.5 | -10.4 | ✓ Correct Final 16-20 · err 3.9pts |
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Georgia State Panthers Sat, Oct 24, 7:00 PM | 27.9–29.2 | +1.3 +2.5 | +1.2 | ✓ Correct Final 38-32 · err 7.3pts |
Texas Longhorns vs Ole Miss Rebels Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM | 31.4–22.8 | -8.6 -3 | +5.6 | ✓ Correct Final 34-27 · err 1.6pts |
Kentucky Wildcats vs Vanderbilt Commodores Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM | 34.3–21.3 | -13 -10.5 | +2.5 | ✓ Correct Final 34-17 · err 4.0pts |
Wisconsin Badgers vs USC Trojans Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM | 21.6–30.6 | +9 +3 | -6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 24-7 · err 26.0pts |
Arizona Wildcats vs Iowa State Cyclones Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM | 37.6–14.7 | -22.9 -11.5 | +11.4 | ✓ Correct Final 39-3 · err 13.1pts |
North Carolina Tar Heels vs Syracuse Orange Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM | 36.0–13.1 | -22.9 -9.5 | +13.4 | ✗ Incorrect Final 30-31 · err 23.9pts |
Texas State Bobcats vs Utah State Aggies Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM | 39.9–14.8 | -25.1 -13.5 | +11.6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 20-17 · err 22.1pts |
Tulane Green Wave vs UTSA Roadrunners Sat, Oct 24, 8:00 PM | 22.1–27.8 | +5.7 +3 | -2.7 | ✓ Correct Final 19-42 · err 17.3pts |
New Mexico Lobos vs North Dakota State Bison Sat, Oct 24, 10:00 PM | 28.0–16.1 | -11.9 -4.5 | +7.4 | ✓ Correct Final 21-16 · err 6.9pts |
Utah Utes vs Houston Cougars Sat, Oct 24, 10:15 PM | 31.4–26.1 | -5.3 -6.5 | -1.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 21-13 · err 2.7pts |