🎓 NCAAF Projections
Week 7, week to date — projected score and margin for every FBS-vs-FBS game across all of this week's game days, compared to the market line at the moment each projection was generated.
Season-to-date ATS record
197-208-1
406 graded — no_market/no_lean games excluded
Season avg margin error
13.1 pts
over 454 settled games — still in-sample, see note below
Projected scores for every FBS matchup this week. This model is new and unproven — we publish it so its accuracy can be checked in public, not because it beats the market. Early testing suggests an average miss of roughly 12 points per game, and real accuracy is likely worse until we have a few weeks of results. FCS opponents don't have ratings yet, so those games aren't listed. Market lines shown are from the time we generated the projection, not kickoff. Gap is how far our projection sits from the market — positive means we like the home team more than the market does, negative means less.
Week-to-date ATS record
22-36-1
59 graded — no_market/no_lean games excluded
Avg margin error
13.9 pts
over 59 settled games — still in-sample, see note above
| Matchup | Score | Model / Market | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Delaware Blue Hens Tue, Oct 13, 7:00 PM | 21.6–25.1 | +3.5 +1.5 | -2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 33-30 · err 6.5pts |
Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs Florida International Panthers Tue, Oct 13, 8:00 PM | 27.4–11.1 | -16.3 -2.5 | +13.8 | ✓ Correct Final 27-24 · err 13.3pts |
Missouri State Bears vs Kennesaw State Owls Wed, Oct 14, 7:30 PM | 23.9–25.2 | +1.3 +3.5 | +2.2 | ✓ Correct Final 24-21 · err 4.3pts |
Sam Houston Bearkats vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Wed, Oct 14, 8:00 PM | 29.5–23.1 | -6.4 +1.5 | +7.9 | ✗ Incorrect Final 3-16 · err 19.4pts |
UAB Blazers vs East Carolina Pirates Thu, Oct 15, 7:30 PM | 22.6–23.9 | +1.3 +4.5 | +3.2 | ✓ Correct Final 30-17 · err 14.3pts |
Old Dominion Monarchs vs Georgia Southern Eagles Thu, Oct 15, 7:30 PM | 18.6–27.6 | +9 +3.5 | -5.5 | ✓ Correct Final 15-23 · err 1.0pts |
Texas State Bobcats vs Colorado State Rams Thu, Oct 15, 8:00 PM | 44.2–29.0 | -15.2 -14.5 | +0.7 | ✓ Correct Final 66-27 · err 23.8pts |
Tulane Green Wave vs Memphis Tigers Fri, Oct 16, 7:30 PM | 15.2–34.1 | +18.9 +6.5 | -12.4 | ✗ Incorrect Final 31-17 · err 32.9pts |
Purdue Boilermakers vs Washington Huskies Fri, Oct 16, 8:00 PM | 34.8–20.7 | -14.1 -3.5 | +10.6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 26-38 · err 26.1pts |
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs App State Mountaineers Fri, Oct 16, 8:00 PM | 23.8–24.0 | +0.2 +1.5 | +1.3 | ✗ Incorrect Final 32-35 · err 2.8pts |
Indiana Hoosiers vs Ohio State Buckeyes Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM | 27.7–25.7 | -2 +2.5 | +4.5 | ✗ Incorrect Final 15-19 · err 6.0pts |
Texas Longhorns vs Florida Gators Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM | 37.6–21.3 | -16.3 -11.5 | +4.8 | ✗ Incorrect Final 24-27 · err 19.3pts |
LSU Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM | 38.0–26.1 | -11.9 -17.5 | -5.6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 31-0 · err 19.1pts |
SMU Mustangs vs Virginia Cavaliers Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM | 35.3–19.0 | -16.3 -8.5 | +7.8 | ✓ Correct Final 23-13 · err 6.3pts |
Michigan State Spartans vs Northwestern Wildcats Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM | 20.2–28.1 | +7.9 +7.5 | -0.4 | ✗ Incorrect Final 21-24 · err 4.9pts |
West Virginia Mountaineers vs Cincinnati Bearcats Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM | 38.2–25.2 | -13 -1.5 | +11.5 | ✓ Correct Final 45-42 · err 10.0pts |
Kansas State Wildcats vs Kansas Jayhawks Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM | 35.5–19.2 | -16.3 -3.5 | +12.8 | ✓ Correct Final 35-24 · err 5.3pts |
Boston College Eagles vs Pittsburgh Panthers Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM | 15.6–29.0 | +13.4 +6.5 | -6.9 | ✗ Incorrect Final 27-21 · err 19.4pts |
Army Black Knights vs Florida Atlantic Owls Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM | 31.5–25.1 | -6.4 -2.5 | +3.9 | ✓ Correct Final 56-24 · err 25.6pts |
Bowling Green Falcons vs Ball State Cardinals Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM | 28.4–22.0 | -6.4 -6.5 | -0.1 | ✓ Correct Final 31-32 · err 7.4pts |
James Madison Dukes vs Georgia State Panthers Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM | 32.5–25.0 | -7.5 -9.5 | -2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 49-22 · err 19.5pts |
Maryland Terrapins vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Sat, Oct 17, 12:30 PM | 35.1–26.5 | -8.6 -5.5 | +3.1 | ✗ Incorrect Final 30-37 · err 15.6pts |
Temple Owls vs Charlotte 49ers Sat, Oct 17, 1:00 PM | 44.1–10.1 | -34 -19.5 | +14.5 | ✗ Incorrect Final 31-38 · err 41.0pts |
Buffalo Bulls vs Massachusetts Minutemen Sat, Oct 17, 1:00 PM | 21.0–25.6 | +4.6 -7 | -11.6 | Push Final 25-18 · err 11.6pts |
Central Michigan Chippewas vs Western Michigan Broncos Sat, Oct 17, 1:30 PM | 17.4–24.2 | +6.8 +7.5 | +0.7 | ✓ Correct Final 14-21 · err 0.2pts |
Georgia Bulldogs vs Auburn Tigers Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM | 41.0–12.6 | -28.4 -19.5 | +8.9 | ✗ Incorrect Final 24-27 · err 31.4pts |
Tennessee Volunteers vs Alabama Crimson Tide Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM | 22.5–34.8 | +12.3 +7.5 | -4.8 | ✗ Incorrect Final 26-10 · err 28.3pts |
Ole Miss Rebels vs Missouri Tigers Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM | 35.0–25.3 | -9.7 -5.5 | +4.2 | ✓ Correct Final 31-3 · err 18.3pts |
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Arizona State Sun Devils Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM | 38.6–16.8 | -21.8 -15.5 | +6.3 | ✓ Correct Final 53-25 · err 6.2pts |
Virginia Tech Hokies vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM | 36.9–18.4 | -18.5 -8.5 | +10 | ✓ Correct Final 34-24 · err 8.5pts |
Duke Blue Devils vs North Carolina Tar Heels Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM | 20.8–23.2 | +2.4 -3 | -5.4 | ✓ Correct Final 20-24 · err 1.6pts |
Michigan Wolverines vs Penn State Nittany Lions Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM | 26.6–15.8 | -10.8 -6.5 | +4.3 | ✗ Incorrect Final 21-18 · err 7.8pts |
Wyoming Cowboys vs Northern Illinois Huskies Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM | 21.1–18.0 | -3.1 -7.5 | -4.4 | ✗ Incorrect Final 41-23 · err 14.9pts |
Air Force Falcons vs UNLV Rebels Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM | 23.3–20.2 | -3.1 -1.5 | +1.6 | ✓ Correct Final 41-31 · err 6.9pts |
Eastern Michigan Eagles vs Toledo Rockets Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM | 28.0–26.0 | -2 +6.5 | +8.5 | ✗ Incorrect Final 14-34 · err 22.0pts |
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs Akron Zips Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM | 39.0–12.8 | -26.2 -9.5 | +16.7 | ✓ Correct Final 34-14 · err 6.2pts |
Rice Owls vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane Sat, Oct 17, 4:30 PM | 21.5–25.0 | +3.5 +4.5 | +1 | ✗ Incorrect Final 17-38 · err 17.5pts |
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns vs Troy Trojans Sat, Oct 17, 5:00 PM | 30.2–20.5 | -9.7 -3 | +6.7 | ✓ Correct Final 33-6 · err 17.3pts |
Oregon State Beavers vs Washington State Cougars Sat, Oct 17, 6:00 PM | 41.5–10.9 | -30.6 -18.5 | +12.1 | ✗ Incorrect Final 48-30 · err 12.6pts |
Miami Hurricanes vs Florida State Seminoles Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 PM | 40.8–16.8 | -24 -20.5 | +3.5 | ✗ Incorrect Final 43-35 · err 16.0pts |
Vanderbilt Commodores vs Arkansas Razorbacks Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 PM | 30.6–18.7 | -11.9 -5.5 | +6.4 | ✗ Incorrect Final 21-31 · err 21.9pts |
Baylor Bears vs TCU Horned Frogs Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 PM | 27.7–14.7 | -13 -5.5 | +7.5 | ✗ Incorrect Final 6-17 · err 24.0pts |
South Florida Bulls vs Kent State Golden Flashes Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 PM | 30.9–12.4 | -18.5 -20.5 | -2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 29-2 · err 8.5pts |
North Dakota State Bison vs Nevada Wolf Pack Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 PM | 34.1–9.0 | -25.1 -14.5 | +10.6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 31-17 · err 11.1pts |
Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 PM | 28.8–30.1 | +1.3 +6.5 | +5.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 13-23 · err 8.7pts |
BYU Cougars vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Sat, Oct 17, 7:30 PM | 24.1–26.5 | +2.4 +10.5 | +8.1 | ✓ Correct Final 28-24 · err 6.4pts |
UCLA Bruins vs Wisconsin Badgers Sat, Oct 17, 7:30 PM | 28.1–23.9 | -4.2 -2.5 | +1.7 | ✓ Correct Final 17-7 · err 5.8pts |
Oklahoma Sooners vs Kentucky Wildcats Sat, Oct 17, 7:30 PM | 32.5–18.4 | -14.1 -6.5 | +7.6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 13-21 · err 22.1pts |
Houston Cougars vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Sat, Oct 17, 7:30 PM | 36.2–23.2 | -13 -4.5 | +8.5 | ✗ Incorrect Final 35-32 · err 10.0pts |
Syracuse Orange vs Louisville Cardinals Sat, Oct 17, 7:30 PM | 22.8–39.5 | +16.7 +14.5 | -2.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 26-34 · err 8.7pts |
UTSA Roadrunners vs Navy Midshipmen Sat, Oct 17, 8:00 PM | 33.1–20.1 | -13 -6.5 | +6.5 | ✗ Incorrect Final 38-34 · err 9.0pts |
UL Monroe Warhawks vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Sat, Oct 17, 8:00 PM | 25.3–42.0 | +16.7 +15.5 | -1.2 | ✓ Correct Final 0-24 · err 7.3pts |
UTEP Miners vs San José State Spartans Sat, Oct 17, 9:00 PM | 23.3–25.7 | +2.4 +7 | +4.6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 11-24 · err 10.6pts |
Sacramento State Hornets vs Ohio Bobcats Sat, Oct 17, 10:00 PM | 16.4–32.0 | +15.6 +15.5 | -0.1 | ✓ Correct Final 7-48 · err 25.4pts |
Colorado Buffaloes vs Utah Utes Sat, Oct 17, 10:15 PM | 15.0–33.9 | +18.9 +15.5 | -3.4 | ✗ Incorrect Final 24-27 · err 15.9pts |
California Golden Bears vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons Sat, Oct 17, 10:30 PM | 22.9–31.9 | +9 +9.5 | +0.5 | ✗ Incorrect Final 7-41 · err 25.0pts |
San Diego State Aztecs vs Fresno State Bulldogs Sat, Oct 17, 10:30 PM | 21.7–30.7 | +9 +7.5 | -1.5 | ✗ Incorrect Final 26-23 · err 12.0pts |
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors vs New Mexico Lobos Sat, Oct 17, 10:30 PM | 14.1–33.0 | +18.9 +14.5 | -4.4 | ✗ Incorrect Final 10-21 · err 7.9pts |
Oregon Ducks vs Nebraska Cornhuskers Sat, Oct 17, 11:00 PM | 35.8–22.8 | -13 -7 | +6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 17-14 · err 10.0pts |