🎓 NCAAF Projections
Week 6, week to date — projected score and margin for every FBS-vs-FBS game across all of this week's game days, compared to the market line at the moment each projection was generated.
Season-to-date ATS record
197-208-1
406 graded — no_market/no_lean games excluded
Season avg margin error
13.1 pts
over 454 settled games — still in-sample, see note below
Projected scores for every FBS matchup this week. This model is new and unproven — we publish it so its accuracy can be checked in public, not because it beats the market. Early testing suggests an average miss of roughly 12 points per game, and real accuracy is likely worse until we have a few weeks of results. FCS opponents don't have ratings yet, so those games aren't listed. Market lines shown are from the time we generated the projection, not kickoff. Gap is how far our projection sits from the market — positive means we like the home team more than the market does, negative means less.
Week-to-date ATS record
25-33
58 graded — no_market/no_lean games excluded
Avg margin error
13.3 pts
over 58 settled games — still in-sample, see note above
| Matchup | Score | Model / Market | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Troy Trojans vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles Tue, Oct 6, 8:00 PM | 29.0–18.2 | -10.8 -10.5 | +0.3 | ✓ Correct Final 55-34 · err 10.2pts |
Kennesaw State Owls vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks Wed, Oct 7, 7:00 PM | 20.4–25.0 | +4.6 +2.5 | -2.1 | ✗ Incorrect Final 26-27 · err 3.6pts |
Florida International Panthers vs New Mexico State Aggies Wed, Oct 7, 7:30 PM | 29.0–12.7 | -16.3 -6.5 | +9.8 | ✓ Correct Final 22-3 · err 2.7pts |
Liberty Flames vs Sam Houston Bearkats Thu, Oct 8, 7:00 PM | 31.6–17.5 | -14.1 -13.5 | +0.6 | ✓ Correct Final 35-3 · err 17.9pts |
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Missouri State Bears Thu, Oct 8, 7:00 PM | 33.6–23.9 | -9.7 -1.5 | +8.2 | ✓ Correct Final 34-13 · err 11.3pts |
UTSA Roadrunners vs South Florida Bulls Thu, Oct 8, 7:30 PM | 27.4–21.0 | -6.4 -6.5 | -0.1 | ✗ Incorrect Final 31-24 · err 0.6pts |
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs South Alabama Jaguars Thu, Oct 8, 7:30 PM | 31.1–25.8 | -5.3 -2.5 | +2.8 | ✗ Incorrect Final 49-56 · err 12.3pts |
Louisville Cardinals vs Florida State Seminoles Fri, Oct 9, 7:00 PM | 33.9–27.5 | -6.4 -3.5 | +2.9 | ✓ Correct Final 44-20 · err 17.6pts |
Washington Huskies vs Iowa Hawkeyes Fri, Oct 9, 9:00 PM | 20.7–20.9 | +0.2 -2.5 | -2.7 | ✓ Correct Final 24-41 · err 16.8pts |
Utah State Aggies vs Washington State Cougars Fri, Oct 9, 9:00 PM | 24.7–15.0 | -9.7 -5.5 | +4.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 17-16 · err 8.7pts |
San José State Spartans vs Wyoming Cowboys Fri, Oct 9, 9:00 PM | 25.5–14.7 | -10.8 -4.5 | +6.3 | ✗ Incorrect Final 13-16 · err 13.8pts |
BYU Cougars vs Iowa State Cyclones Fri, Oct 9, 10:15 PM | 36.1–16.5 | -19.6 -10.5 | +9.1 | ✓ Correct Final 24-10 · err 5.6pts |
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Indiana Hoosiers Sat, Oct 10, 12:00 PM | 26.8–29.2 | +2.4 +7.5 | +5.1 | ✓ Correct Final 17-20 · err 0.6pts |
Missouri Tigers vs Texas A&M Aggies Sat, Oct 10, 12:00 PM | 33.2–20.2 | -13 -3.5 | +9.5 | ✓ Correct Final 27-6 · err 8.0pts |
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs UCF Knights Sat, Oct 10, 12:00 PM | 31.8–21.0 | -10.8 -10.5 | +0.3 | ✓ Correct Final 42-28 · err 3.2pts |
Pittsburgh Panthers vs North Carolina Tar Heels Sat, Oct 10, 12:00 PM | 28.1–18.4 | -9.7 -3.5 | +6.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 17-21 · err 13.7pts |
West Virginia Mountaineers vs Arizona Wildcats Sat, Oct 10, 12:00 PM | 29.1–28.2 | -0.9 +3.5 | +4.4 | ✗ Incorrect Final 31-52 · err 21.9pts |
NC State Wolfpack vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons Sat, Oct 10, 12:00 PM | 34.9–26.3 | -8.6 +3.5 | +12.1 | ✗ Incorrect Final 14-38 · err 32.6pts |
Army Black Knights vs Tulane Green Wave Sat, Oct 10, 12:00 PM | 33.5–12.8 | -20.7 -3.5 | +17.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 20-17 · err 17.7pts |
Bowling Green Falcons vs Sacramento State Hornets Sat, Oct 10, 12:00 PM | 26.2–17.6 | -8.6 -8.5 | +0.1 | ✓ Correct Final 38-10 · err 19.4pts |
Northwestern Wildcats vs Ball State Cardinals Sat, Oct 10, 12:30 PM | 49.4–3.3 | -46.1 -35.5 | +10.6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 45-14 · err 15.1pts |
Florida Gators vs South Carolina Gamecocks Sat, Oct 10, 12:45 PM | 45.3–24.6 | -20.7 -10.5 | +10.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 19-38 · err 39.7pts |
East Carolina Pirates vs Rice Owls Sat, Oct 10, 1:00 PM | 27.9–18.2 | -9.7 -10 | -0.3 | ✗ Incorrect Final 28-12 · err 6.3pts |
App State Mountaineers vs Old Dominion Monarchs Sat, Oct 10, 1:00 PM | 37.4–16.7 | -20.7 -10 | +10.7 | ✗ Incorrect Final 3-10 · err 27.7pts |
Massachusetts Minutemen vs Miami (OH) RedHawks Sat, Oct 10, 2:00 PM | 23.2–28.9 | +5.7 +5.5 | -0.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 19-20 · err 4.7pts |
Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM · Neutral site | 14.8–25.8 | +11 +7.5 | -3.5 | ✗ Incorrect Final 27-24 · err 14.0pts |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Stanford Cardinal Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM | 45.0–8.8 | -36.2 -39.5 | -3.3 | ✗ Incorrect Final 58-7 · err 14.8pts |
Vanderbilt Commodores vs Ole Miss Rebels Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM | 26.8–31.4 | +4.6 +9.5 | +4.9 | ✗ Incorrect Final 17-52 · err 30.4pts |
Oregon Ducks vs UCLA Bruins Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM | 47.6–20.3 | -27.3 -10.5 | +16.8 | ✗ Incorrect Final 15-17 · err 29.3pts |
Kansas State Wildcats vs Houston Cougars Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM | 31.7–26.4 | -5.3 -2.5 | +2.8 | ✗ Incorrect Final 16-35 · err 24.3pts |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Duke Blue Devils Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM | 26.7–22.5 | -4.2 +6.5 | +10.7 | ✓ Correct Final 28-25 · err 1.2pts |
California Golden Bears vs Virginia Tech Hokies Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM | 21.8–35.2 | +13.4 +9.5 | -3.9 | ✗ Incorrect Final 25-20 · err 18.4pts |
Michigan State Spartans vs Illinois Fighting Illini Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM | 22.2–25.7 | +3.5 +2.5 | -1 | ✗ Incorrect Final 37-38 · err 2.5pts |
North Texas Mean Green vs Charlotte 49ers Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM | 52.4–14.0 | -38.4 -29.5 | +8.9 | ✓ Correct Final 50-10 · err 1.6pts |
Navy Midshipmen vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM | 22.5–24.9 | +2.4 -2.5 | -4.9 | ✗ Incorrect Final 34-26 · err 10.4pts |
Akron Zips vs Eastern Michigan Eagles Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM | 28.8–20.2 | -8.6 +5.5 | +14.1 | ✓ Correct Final 23-25 · err 10.6pts |
Toledo Rockets vs Buffalo Bulls Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM | 44.5–15.0 | -29.5 -18.5 | +11 | ✗ Incorrect Final 8-23 · err 44.5pts |
Ohio Bobcats vs Central Michigan Chippewas Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM | 29.0–18.2 | -10.8 -2.5 | +8.3 | ✓ Correct Final 31-14 · err 6.2pts |
Western Michigan Broncos vs Kent State Golden Flashes Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM | 29.6–13.3 | -16.3 -14 | +2.3 | ✓ Correct Final 38-7 · err 14.7pts |
Temple Owls vs UConn Huskies Sat, Oct 10, 3:45 PM | 34.0–22.1 | -11.9 -3.5 | +8.4 | ✗ Incorrect Final 20-34 · err 25.9pts |
Ohio State Buckeyes vs Maryland Terrapins Sat, Oct 10, 4:15 PM | 49.1–8.5 | -40.6 -33.5 | +7.1 | ✗ Incorrect Final 45-16 · err 11.6pts |
Arkansas Razorbacks vs Tennessee Volunteers Sat, Oct 10, 4:15 PM | 20.1–29.1 | +9 +13.5 | +4.5 | ✓ Correct Final 17-24 · err 2.0pts |
Oregon State Beavers vs San Diego State Aztecs Sat, Oct 10, 6:00 PM | 40.4–16.4 | -24 -15.5 | +8.5 | ✓ Correct Final 66-14 · err 28.0pts |
Kentucky Wildcats vs LSU Tigers Sat, Oct 10, 7:00 PM | 23.4–36.8 | +13.4 +8.5 | -4.9 | ✗ Incorrect Final 35-34 · err 14.4pts |
Memphis Tigers vs UAB Blazers Sat, Oct 10, 7:00 PM | 42.1–11.5 | -30.6 -14.5 | +16.1 | ✓ Correct Final 38-13 · err 5.6pts |
UTEP Miners vs Nevada Wolf Pack Sat, Oct 10, 7:00 PM | 25.9–28.3 | +2.4 +10 | +7.6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 13-30 · err 14.6pts |
UNLV Rebels vs North Dakota State Bison Sat, Oct 10, 7:00 PM | 23.3–21.3 | -2 +2.5 | +4.5 | ✓ Correct Final 13-7 · err 4.0pts |
Marshall Thundering Herd vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers Sat, Oct 10, 7:00 PM | 29.6–23.2 | -6.4 -4.5 | +1.9 | ✗ Incorrect Final 21-27 · err 12.4pts |
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Georgia Bulldogs Sat, Oct 10, 7:30 PM | 36.3–32.1 | -4.2 -1.5 | +2.7 | ✗ Incorrect Final 17-20 · err 7.2pts |
Penn State Nittany Lions vs USC Trojans Sat, Oct 10, 7:30 PM | 23.5–31.4 | +7.9 -2.5 | -10.4 | ✓ Correct Final 23-31 · err 0.1pts |
Virginia Cavaliers vs Syracuse Orange Sat, Oct 10, 7:30 PM | 38.6–15.7 | -22.9 -10.5 | +12.4 | ✗ Incorrect Final 28-25 · err 19.9pts |
Northern Illinois Huskies vs Air Force Falcons Sat, Oct 10, 7:30 PM | 21.9–26.5 | +4.6 +7.5 | +2.9 | ✗ Incorrect Final 7-28 · err 16.4pts |
Georgia Southern Eagles vs James Madison Dukes Sat, Oct 10, 7:30 PM | 24.6–28.1 | +3.5 +7.5 | +4 | ✓ Correct Final 24-27 · err 0.5pts |
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Sat, Oct 10, 7:30 PM | 30.4–26.2 | -4.2 -3 | +1.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 32-31 · err 3.2pts |
Utah Utes vs Kansas Jayhawks Sat, Oct 10, 8:00 PM | 41.1–11.6 | -29.5 -15.5 | +14 | ✓ Correct Final 41-24 · err 12.5pts |
Purdue Boilermakers vs Minnesota Golden Gophers Sat, Oct 10, 8:00 PM | 30.3–27.2 | -3.1 +2.5 | +5.6 | ✓ Correct Final 41-13 · err 24.9pts |
Fresno State Bulldogs vs Boise State Broncos Sat, Oct 10, 10:30 PM | 18.1–30.4 | +12.3 +6.5 | -5.8 | ✓ Correct Final 31-38 · err 5.3pts |
Arizona State Sun Devils vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors Sat, Oct 10, 10:30 PM | 39.1–14.0 | -25.1 -20.5 | +4.6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 30-12 · err 7.1pts |