🎓 NCAAF Projections
Week 5, week to date — projected score and margin for every FBS-vs-FBS game across all of this week's game days, compared to the market line at the moment each projection was generated.
Season-to-date ATS record
197-208-1
406 graded — no_market/no_lean games excluded
Season avg margin error
13.1 pts
over 454 settled games — still in-sample, see note below
Projected scores for every FBS matchup this week. This model is new and unproven — we publish it so its accuracy can be checked in public, not because it beats the market. Early testing suggests an average miss of roughly 12 points per game, and real accuracy is likely worse until we have a few weeks of results. FCS opponents don't have ratings yet, so those games aren't listed. Market lines shown are from the time we generated the projection, not kickoff. Gap is how far our projection sits from the market — positive means we like the home team more than the market does, negative means less.
Week-to-date ATS record
29-27
56 graded — no_market/no_lean games excluded
Avg margin error
14.3 pts
over 56 settled games — still in-sample, see note above
| Matchup | Score | Model / Market | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
New Mexico State Aggies vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Thu, Oct 1, 8:00 PM | 27.3–31.9 | +4.6 -2.5 | -7.1 | ✗ Incorrect Final 34-13 · err 25.6pts |
Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs North Texas Mean Green Thu, Oct 1, 9:00 PM | 25.7–28.1 | +2.4 -1.5 | -3.9 | ✓ Correct Final 44-45 · err 1.4pts |
Virginia Tech Hokies vs Pittsburgh Panthers Fri, Oct 2, 7:00 PM | 30.2–22.7 | -7.5 -2.5 | +5 | ✗ Incorrect Final 33-35 · err 9.5pts |
Delaware Blue Hens vs Liberty Flames Fri, Oct 2, 7:00 PM | 24.7–22.7 | -2 +6.5 | +8.5 | ✗ Incorrect Final 14-30 · err 18.0pts |
Northwestern Wildcats vs Penn State Nittany Lions Fri, Oct 2, 8:00 PM | 29.6–18.8 | -10.8 +2.5 | +13.3 | ✓ Correct Final 34-13 · err 10.2pts |
Charlotte 49ers vs Memphis Tigers Sat, Oct 3, 11:00 AM | 14.2–43.0 | +28.8 +20.5 | -8.3 | ✓ Correct Final 8-59 · err 22.2pts |
North Carolina Tar Heels vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM | 10.5–31.6 | +21.1 +21 | -0.1 | ✗ Incorrect Final 26-37 · err 10.1pts |
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM | 32.7–34.0 | +1.3 +5.5 | +4.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 23-56 · err 31.7pts |
Houston Cougars vs UCF Knights Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM | 41.1–17.1 | -24 -11.5 | +12.5 | ✗ Incorrect Final 27-17 · err 14.0pts |
SMU Mustangs vs Boston College Eagles Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM | 41.6–9.9 | -31.7 -21.5 | +10.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 25-16 · err 22.7pts |
Kansas Jayhawks vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM | 35.3–13.5 | -21.8 -20.5 | +1.3 | ✓ Correct Final 55-0 · err 33.2pts |
Iowa State Cyclones vs West Virginia Mountaineers Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM | 27.1–26.2 | -0.9 -2.5 | -1.6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 45-42 · err 2.1pts |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs Stanford Cardinal Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM | 35.4–21.3 | -14.1 -13.5 | +0.6 | ✓ Correct Final 57-3 · err 39.9pts |
UConn Huskies vs Syracuse Orange Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM | 31.1–21.4 | -9.7 +6.5 | +16.2 | ✓ Correct Final 41-42 · err 10.7pts |
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Michigan Wolverines Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM | 21.1–24.6 | +3.5 +6.5 | +3 | ✓ Correct Final 20-14 · err 9.5pts |
Air Force Falcons vs Navy Midshipmen Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM | 34.3–22.4 | -11.9 -3.5 | +8.4 | ✓ Correct Final 14-9 · err 6.9pts |
Wisconsin Badgers vs Michigan State Spartans Sat, Oct 3, 12:30 PM | 26.3–19.9 | -6.4 -9.5 | -3.1 | ✗ Incorrect Final 31-3 · err 21.6pts |
Georgia Bulldogs vs Vanderbilt Commodores Sat, Oct 3, 12:45 PM | 45.9–13.1 | -32.8 -25.5 | +7.3 | ✗ Incorrect Final 38-14 · err 8.8pts |
Buffalo Bulls vs Western Michigan Broncos Sat, Oct 3, 1:00 PM | 19.1–29.2 | +10.1 +12.5 | +2.4 | ✓ Correct Final 17-20 · err 7.1pts |
Ball State Cardinals vs Toledo Rockets Sat, Oct 3, 2:00 PM | 21.9–40.8 | +18.9 +20.5 | +1.6 | ✓ Correct Final 24-39 · err 3.9pts |
Iowa Hawkeyes vs Ohio State Buckeyes Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM | 18.4–29.6 | +11.2 +14.5 | +3.3 | ✗ Incorrect Final 14-31 · err 5.8pts |
Missouri Tigers vs Florida Gators Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM | 32.3–34.7 | +2.4 +5.5 | +3.1 | ✓ Correct Final 45-17 · err 30.4pts |
Tennessee Volunteers vs Auburn Tigers Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM | 30.5–21.9 | -8.6 -6.5 | +2.1 | ✓ Correct Final 24-14 · err 1.4pts |
UNLV Rebels vs California Golden Bears Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM | 25.7–19.3 | -6.4 -2.5 | +3.9 | ✓ Correct Final 39-31 · err 1.6pts |
NC State Wolfpack vs Louisville Cardinals Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM | 34.1–33.2 | -0.9 +3 | +3.9 | ✓ Correct Final 31-28 · err 2.1pts |
Florida State Seminoles vs Virginia Cavaliers Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM | 29.0–25.9 | -3.1 +1.5 | +4.6 | ✓ Correct Final 38-7 · err 27.9pts |
North Dakota State Bison vs Wyoming Cowboys Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM | 35.3–5.8 | -29.5 -17.5 | +12 | ✓ Correct Final 28-0 · err 1.5pts |
Central Michigan Chippewas vs Akron Zips Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM | 25.1–18.7 | -6.4 -6.5 | -0.1 | ✗ Incorrect Final 41-17 · err 17.6pts |
Massachusetts Minutemen vs Eastern Michigan Eagles Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM | 31.9–14.5 | -17.4 -6 | +11.4 | ✗ Incorrect Final 14-38 · err 41.4pts |
Kent State Golden Flashes vs Ohio Bobcats Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM | 27.6–28.9 | +1.3 +3.5 | +2.2 | ✓ Correct Final 10-13 · err 1.7pts |
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs Bowling Green Falcons Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM | 45.2–5.7 | -39.5 -12.5 | +27 | ✗ Incorrect Final 20-24 · err 43.5pts |
Georgia State Panthers vs Old Dominion Monarchs Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM | 33.8–21.9 | -11.9 -2.5 | +9.4 | ✓ Correct Final 42-10 · err 20.1pts |
James Madison Dukes vs Marshall Thundering Herd Sat, Oct 3, 3:45 PM | 41.2–15.0 | -26.2 -18.5 | +7.7 | ✓ Correct Final 45-17 · err 1.8pts |
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Maryland Terrapins Sat, Oct 3, 4:00 PM | 38.3–17.6 | -20.7 -14.5 | +6.2 | ✓ Correct Final 48-23 · err 4.3pts |
New Mexico Lobos vs UTEP Miners Sat, Oct 3, 4:00 PM | 43.1–9.1 | -34 -23.5 | +10.5 | ✓ Correct Final 61-7 · err 20.0pts |
South Carolina Gamecocks vs Kentucky Wildcats Sat, Oct 3, 4:15 PM | 38.4–23.2 | -15.2 -2.5 | +12.7 | ✗ Incorrect Final 34-35 · err 16.2pts |
Illinois Fighting Illini vs Purdue Boilermakers Sat, Oct 3, 4:15 PM | 42.0–24.6 | -17.4 -10.5 | +6.9 | ✗ Incorrect Final 17-24 · err 24.4pts |
Colorado State Rams vs Oregon State Beavers Sat, Oct 3, 6:00 PM | 32.0–33.3 | +1.3 +6.5 | +5.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 26-56 · err 28.7pts |
TCU Horned Frogs vs BYU Cougars Sat, Oct 3, 7:00 PM | 22.6–27.2 | +4.6 +6 | +1.4 | ✗ Incorrect Final 10-17 · err 2.4pts |
Texas A&M Aggies vs Arkansas Razorbacks Sat, Oct 3, 7:00 PM | 34.0–16.6 | -17.4 -13.5 | +3.9 | ✓ Correct Final 34-7 · err 9.6pts |
Rice Owls vs UTSA Roadrunners Sat, Oct 3, 7:00 PM | 25.4–31.1 | +5.7 +11.5 | +5.8 | ✓ Correct Final 14-16 · err 3.7pts |
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs Georgia Southern Eagles Sat, Oct 3, 7:00 PM | 23.2–23.4 | +0.2 +2.5 | +2.3 | ✗ Incorrect Final 24-31 · err 6.8pts |
South Alabama Jaguars vs UL Monroe Warhawks Sat, Oct 3, 7:00 PM | 42.6–20.8 | -21.8 -13.5 | +8.3 | ✓ Correct Final 52-35 · err 4.8pts |
Clemson Tigers vs Miami Hurricanes Sat, Oct 3, 7:30 PM | 13.9–37.2 | +23.3 +15.5 | -7.8 | ✓ Correct Final 13-41 · err 4.7pts |
Colorado Buffaloes vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Sat, Oct 3, 7:30 PM | 18.0–31.4 | +13.4 +13.5 | +0.1 | ✗ Incorrect Final 7-29 · err 8.6pts |
USC Trojans vs Washington Huskies Sat, Oct 3, 7:30 PM | 39.5–15.5 | -24 -8.5 | +15.5 | ✗ Incorrect Final 25-21 · err 20.0pts |
Boise State Broncos vs Utah State Aggies Sat, Oct 3, 7:30 PM | 37.6–5.9 | -31.7 -19.5 | +12.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 37-18 · err 12.7pts |
South Florida Bulls vs Temple Owls Sat, Oct 3, 7:30 PM | 26.0–22.9 | -3.1 -5.5 | -2.4 | ✓ Correct Final 13-17 · err 7.1pts |
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Army Black Knights Sat, Oct 3, 7:30 PM | 31.4–27.2 | -4.2 +1.5 | +5.7 | ✓ Correct Final 31-29 · err 2.2pts |
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs Indiana Hoosiers Sat, Oct 3, 8:00 PM | 19.3–38.2 | +18.9 +24.5 | +5.6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 15-47 · err 13.1pts |
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Sat, Oct 3, 8:00 PM | 29.5–18.7 | -10.8 -6.5 | +4.3 | ✗ Incorrect Final 23-20 · err 7.8pts |
Washington State Cougars vs Fresno State Bulldogs Sat, Oct 3, 9:30 PM | 24.5–21.4 | -3.1 -1.5 | +1.6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 6-26 · err 23.1pts |
Arizona State Sun Devils vs Baylor Bears Sat, Oct 3, 10:30 PM | 25.7–25.9 | +0.2 -3.5 | -3.7 | ✓ Correct Final 19-55 · err 35.8pts |
San Diego State Aztecs vs Texas State Bobcats Sat, Oct 3, 10:30 PM | 24.3–36.6 | +12.3 +10.5 | -1.8 | ✗ Incorrect Final 31-29 · err 14.3pts |
Arizona Wildcats vs Cincinnati Bearcats Sat, Oct 3, 11:00 PM | 34.9–20.8 | -14.1 -6.5 | +7.6 | ✓ Correct Final 34-7 · err 12.9pts |
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors vs San José State Spartans Sat, Oct 3, 11:59 PM | 27.9–18.2 | -9.7 -3.5 | +6.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 16-20 · err 13.7pts |