🎓 NCAAF Projections
Week 4, week to date — projected score and margin for every FBS-vs-FBS game across all of this week's game days, compared to the market line at the moment each projection was generated.
Season-to-date ATS record
197-208-1
406 graded — no_market/no_lean games excluded
Season avg margin error
13.1 pts
over 454 settled games — still in-sample, see note below
Projected scores for every FBS matchup this week. This model is new and unproven — we publish it so its accuracy can be checked in public, not because it beats the market. Early testing suggests an average miss of roughly 12 points per game, and real accuracy is likely worse until we have a few weeks of results. FCS opponents don't have ratings yet, so those games aren't listed. Market lines shown are from the time we generated the projection, not kickoff. Gap is how far our projection sits from the market — positive means we like the home team more than the market does, negative means less.
Week-to-date ATS record
32-26
58 graded — no_market/no_lean games excluded
Avg margin error
13.1 pts
over 58 settled games — still in-sample, see note above
| Matchup | Score | Model / Market | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs Liberty Flames Thu, Sep 24, 7:30 PM | 25.1–22.0 | -3.1 +2.5 | +5.6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 17-34 · err 20.1pts |
Temple Owls vs Army Black Knights Fri, Sep 25, 4:00 PM | 32.9–26.5 | -6.4 +3.5 | +9.9 | ✗ Incorrect Final 17-21 · err 10.4pts |
UAB Blazers vs Navy Midshipmen Fri, Sep 25, 7:00 PM | 25.3–29.9 | +4.6 +6.5 | +1.9 | ✓ Correct Final 24-20 · err 8.6pts |
Indiana Hoosiers vs Northwestern Wildcats Fri, Sep 25, 8:00 PM | 35.3–15.7 | -19.6 -20.5 | -0.9 | ✓ Correct Final 29-23 · err 13.6pts |
California Golden Bears vs Clemson Tigers Fri, Sep 25, 10:30 PM | 27.4–22.1 | -5.3 +1.5 | +6.8 | ✗ Incorrect Final 10-24 · err 19.3pts |
Tennessee Volunteers vs Texas Longhorns Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM | 27.5–27.7 | +0.2 +5.5 | +5.3 | ✓ Correct Final 17-20 · err 2.8pts |
Ohio State Buckeyes vs Illinois Fighting Illini Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM | 41.0–17.0 | -24 -27.5 | -3.5 | ✓ Correct Final 42-19 · err 1.0pts |
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Sam Houston Bearkats Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM | 42.6–6.4 | -36.2 -34.5 | +1.7 | ✓ Correct Final 49-14 · err 1.2pts |
Louisville Cardinals vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM | 43.3–24.8 | -18.5 -12.5 | +6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 27-30 · err 21.5pts |
Baylor Bears vs Colorado Buffaloes Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM | 30.0–15.9 | -14.1 -9.5 | +4.6 | ✓ Correct Final 23-13 · err 4.1pts |
Boston College Eagles vs Virginia Tech Hokies Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM | 16.9–39.1 | +22.2 +14.5 | -7.7 | ✗ Incorrect Final 14-21 · err 15.2pts |
Toledo Rockets vs San Diego State Aztecs Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM | 35.2–26.6 | -8.6 -2.5 | +6.1 | ✓ Correct Final 41-16 · err 16.4pts |
UTSA Roadrunners vs Colorado State Rams Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM | 29.9–27.9 | -2 -13.5 | -11.5 | ✗ Incorrect Final 59-45 · err 12.0pts |
Akron Zips vs UNLV Rebels Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM | 22.2–23.5 | +1.3 +13.5 | +12.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 10-38 · err 26.7pts |
Kent State Golden Flashes vs Ball State Cardinals Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM | 38.1–20.7 | -17.4 -2.5 | +14.9 | ✓ Correct Final 26-13 · err 4.4pts |
Kentucky Wildcats vs South Alabama Jaguars Sat, Sep 26, 12:45 PM | 42.6–16.4 | -26.2 -20.5 | +5.7 | ✓ Correct Final 45-21 · err 2.2pts |
Maryland Terrapins vs UCLA Bruins Sat, Sep 26, 1:30 PM | 34.3–27.9 | -6.4 +1.5 | +7.9 | ✗ Incorrect Final 3-54 · err 57.4pts |
Purdue Boilermakers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Sat, Sep 26, 2:00 PM | 22.0–39.8 | +17.8 +27.5 | +9.7 | ✗ Incorrect Final 10-49 · err 21.2pts |
Georgia State Panthers vs Northern Illinois Huskies Sat, Sep 26, 2:00 PM | 33.8–23.0 | -10.8 -10.5 | +0.3 | ✓ Correct Final 35-14 · err 10.2pts |
Wyoming Cowboys vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors Sat, Sep 26, 3:00 PM | 18.1–22.7 | +4.6 +2.5 | -2.1 | ✗ Incorrect Final 27-10 · err 21.6pts |
Georgia Bulldogs vs Oklahoma Sooners Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM | 35.8–16.2 | -19.6 -13.5 | +6.1 | ✓ Correct Final 41-13 · err 8.4pts |
Florida Gators vs Ole Miss Rebels Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM | 38.4–30.9 | -7.5 -3.5 | +4 | ✓ Correct Final 52-28 · err 16.5pts |
Iowa State Cyclones vs Utah Utes Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM | 19.9–30.0 | +10.1 +7.5 | -2.6 | ✓ Correct Final 17-31 · err 3.9pts |
Michigan Wolverines vs Iowa Hawkeyes Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM | 24.9–14.1 | -10.8 -5.5 | +5.3 | ✗ Incorrect Final 19-20 · err 11.8pts |
UCF Knights vs TCU Horned Frogs Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM | 23.8–26.2 | +2.4 +3.5 | +1.1 | ✓ Correct Final 21-13 · err 10.4pts |
Western Michigan Broncos vs Boise State Broncos Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM | 21.7–30.7 | +9 +7.5 | -1.5 | ✓ Correct Final 7-32 · err 16.0pts |
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs UConn Huskies Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM | 37.3–25.4 | -11.9 -3.5 | +8.4 | ✗ Incorrect Final 24-21 · err 8.9pts |
New Mexico State Aggies vs New Mexico Lobos Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM | 17.3–32.9 | +15.6 +11.5 | -4.1 | ✓ Correct Final 18-42 · err 8.4pts |
Georgia Southern Eagles vs Houston Cougars Sat, Sep 26, 4:00 PM | 15.3–35.3 | +20 +17.5 | -2.5 | ✗ Incorrect Final 28-42 · err 6.0pts |
Auburn Tigers vs Vanderbilt Commodores Sat, Sep 26, 4:15 PM | 34.4–20.3 | -14.1 -9.5 | +4.6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 21-15 · err 8.1pts |
Penn State Nittany Lions vs Wisconsin Badgers Sat, Sep 26, 5:00 PM | 33.2–18.0 | -15.2 -10 | +5.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 20-24 · err 19.2pts |
Michigan State Spartans vs Nebraska Cornhuskers Sat, Sep 26, 5:00 PM | 25.8–23.8 | -2 +5.5 | +7.5 | ✗ Incorrect Final 13-31 · err 20.0pts |
Bowling Green Falcons vs South Florida Bulls Sat, Sep 26, 5:00 PM | 15.3–36.4 | +21.1 +17.5 | -3.6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 6-14 · err 13.1pts |
Virginia Cavaliers vs Delaware Blue Hens Sat, Sep 26, 6:00 PM | 38.4–13.3 | -25.1 -19.5 | +5.6 | ✓ Correct Final 42-3 · err 13.9pts |
Old Dominion Monarchs vs James Madison Dukes Sat, Sep 26, 6:00 PM | 21.0–28.9 | +7.9 +6.5 | -1.4 | ✓ Correct Final 20-46 · err 18.1pts |
Miami Hurricanes vs Central Michigan Chippewas Sat, Sep 26, 6:30 PM | 59.3–0.0 adj. (naive: 47.2) | -59.3 -41.5 | +17.8 | ✓ Correct Final 52-3 · err 10.3pts |
Charlotte 49ers vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Sat, Sep 26, 6:30 PM | 20.4–36.0 | +15.6 +10.5 | -5.1 | ✓ Correct Final 7-34 · err 11.4pts |
Alabama Crimson Tide vs South Carolina Gamecocks Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM | 44.4–21.5 | -22.9 -12.5 | +10.4 | ✓ Correct Final 49-18 · err 8.1pts |
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Kansas State Wildcats Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM | 26.0–32.8 | +6.8 +6.5 | -0.3 | ✗ Incorrect Final 31-26 · err 11.8pts |
West Virginia Mountaineers vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM | 32.1–24.6 | -7.5 -1.5 | +6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 24-41 · err 24.5pts |
Tulane Green Wave vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM | 34.3–13.6 | -20.7 -18.5 | +2.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 24-21 · err 17.7pts |
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Kennesaw State Owls Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM | 31.8–18.8 | -13 -6.5 | +6.5 | ✗ Incorrect Final 17-14 · err 10.0pts |
Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM | 38.0–12.9 | -25.1 -7.5 | +17.6 | ✓ Correct Final 23-13 · err 15.1pts |
LSU Tigers vs Texas A&M Aggies Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM | 35.2–22.2 | -13 -8.5 | +4.5 | ✓ Correct Final 35-6 · err 16.0pts |
USC Trojans vs Oregon Ducks Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM | 39.7–30.0 | -9.7 +3.5 | +13.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 27-41 · err 23.7pts |
Washington State Cougars vs Arizona Wildcats Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM | 14.0–30.7 | +16.7 +10.5 | -6.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 24-34 · err 6.7pts |
Utah State Aggies vs Troy Trojans Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM | 22.5–17.2 | -5.3 -2.5 | +2.8 | ✓ Correct Final 21-10 · err 5.7pts |
NC State Wolfpack vs App State Mountaineers Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM | 37.2–18.7 | -18.5 -13.5 | +5 | ✗ Incorrect Final 41-31 · err 8.5pts |
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Missouri Tigers Sat, Sep 26, 7:45 PM | 36.0–26.3 | -9.7 -6 | +3.7 | ✓ Correct Final 31-24 · err 2.7pts |
Arkansas Razorbacks vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane Sat, Sep 26, 8:00 PM | 28.3–16.4 | -11.9 -7.5 | +4.4 | ✓ Correct Final 34-6 · err 16.1pts |
UL Monroe Warhawks vs Florida Atlantic Owls Sat, Sep 26, 8:00 PM | 22.5–40.3 | +17.8 +11.5 | -6.3 | ✓ Correct Final 17-45 · err 10.2pts |
SMU Mustangs vs Missouri State Bears Sat, Sep 26, 9:00 PM | 51.0–8.2 | -42.8 -33.5 | +9.3 | ✗ Incorrect Final 34-24 · err 32.8pts |
UTEP Miners vs Oregon State Beavers Sat, Sep 26, 9:00 PM | 20.8–39.7 | +18.9 +10.5 | -8.4 | ✓ Correct Final 7-33 · err 7.1pts |
Sacramento State Hornets vs Massachusetts Minutemen Sat, Sep 26, 9:00 PM | 23.6–24.9 | +1.3 +4.5 | +3.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 6-35 · err 27.7pts |
Fresno State Bulldogs vs Rice Owls Sat, Sep 26, 10:00 PM | 29.2–12.9 | -16.3 -13.5 | +2.8 | ✓ Correct Final 38-24 · err 2.3pts |
Stanford Cardinal vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Sat, Sep 26, 10:30 PM | 26.3–24.3 | -2 +3.5 | +5.5 | ✓ Correct Final 34-27 · err 5.0pts |
Nevada Wolf Pack vs Air Force Falcons Sat, Sep 26, 10:30 PM | 23.8–24.0 | +0.2 +5.5 | +5.3 | ✓ Correct Final 33-36 · err 2.8pts |
Washington Huskies vs Minnesota Golden Gophers Sat, Sep 26, 11:00 PM | 28.2–19.6 | -8.6 -9.5 | -0.9 | ✓ Correct Final 24-27 · err 11.6pts |