🎓 NCAAF Projections
Week 3, week to date — projected score and margin for every FBS-vs-FBS game across all of this week's game days, compared to the market line at the moment each projection was generated.
Season-to-date ATS record
197-208-1
406 graded — no_market/no_lean games excluded
Season avg margin error
13.1 pts
over 454 settled games — still in-sample, see note below
Projected scores for every FBS matchup this week. This model is new and unproven — we publish it so its accuracy can be checked in public, not because it beats the market. Early testing suggests an average miss of roughly 12 points per game, and real accuracy is likely worse until we have a few weeks of results. FCS opponents don't have ratings yet, so those games aren't listed. Market lines shown are from the time we generated the projection, not kickoff. Gap is how far our projection sits from the market — positive means we like the home team more than the market does, negative means less.
Week-to-date ATS record
29-28
57 graded — no_market/no_lean games excluded
Avg margin error
11.4 pts
over 57 settled games — still in-sample, see note above
| Matchup | Score | Model / Market | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Pittsburgh Panthers vs Syracuse Orange Thu, Sep 17, 7:30 PM | 37.6–11.4 | -26.2 -10.5 | +15.7 | ✓ Correct Final 27-13 · err 12.2pts |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs Miami Hurricanes Fri, Sep 18, 7:30 PM | 25.4–41.0 | +15.6 +20.5 | +4.9 | ✓ Correct Final 20-33 · err 2.6pts |
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Houston Cougars Fri, Sep 18, 8:00 PM | 34.6–24.9 | -9.7 -7.5 | +2.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 28-26 · err 7.7pts |
Delaware Blue Hens vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers Sat, Sep 19, 11:30 AM | 30.6–23.1 | -7.5 -4.5 | +3 | ✓ Correct Final 22-14 · err 0.5pts |
Arkansas Razorbacks vs Georgia Bulldogs Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM | 22.5–41.4 | +18.9 +24.5 | +5.6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 17-45 · err 9.1pts |
Ohio State Buckeyes vs Kent State Golden Flashes Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM | 50.0–2.8 | -47.2 -52.5 | -5.3 | ✗ Incorrect Final 59-3 · err 8.8pts |
Penn State Nittany Lions vs Buffalo Bulls Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM | 53.8–0.0 adj. (naive: 41.3) | -53.8 -40.5 | +13.3 | ✓ Correct Final 55-13 · err 11.8pts |
Kansas State Wildcats vs Tulane Green Wave Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM | 37.5–8.0 | -29.5 -20.5 | +9 | ✗ Incorrect Final 31-20 · err 18.5pts |
Iowa State Cyclones vs Bowling Green Falcons Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM | 37.2–4.4 | -32.8 -23.5 | +9.3 | ✓ Correct Final 55-7 · err 15.2pts |
Kansas Jayhawks vs Arizona State Sun Devils Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM · Neutral site | 26.9–39.0 | +12.1 +5.5 | -6.6 | ✓ Correct Final 17-24 · err 5.1pts |
Clemson Tigers vs North Carolina Tar Heels Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM | 17.4–18.7 | +1.3 -3 | -4.3 | ✗ Incorrect Final 28-20 · err 9.3pts |
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Akron Zips Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM | 40.1–16.1 | -24 -23.5 | +0.5 | ✓ Correct Final 41-7 · err 10.0pts |
Texas State Bobcats vs North Texas Mean Green Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM | 30.6–29.7 | -0.9 -2.5 | -1.6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 49-35 · err 13.1pts |
Wisconsin Badgers vs Eastern Michigan Eagles Sat, Sep 19, 12:30 PM | 36.1–9.9 | -26.2 -23.5 | +2.7 | ✓ Correct Final 54-10 · err 17.8pts |
Vanderbilt Commodores vs NC State Wolfpack Sat, Sep 19, 12:45 PM | 27.9–24.8 | -3.1 -3.5 | -0.4 | ✗ Incorrect Final 35-31 · err 0.9pts |
Central Michigan Chippewas vs Wyoming Cowboys Sat, Sep 19, 1:00 PM | 21.9–13.3 | -8.6 +1.5 | +10.1 | ✓ Correct Final 24-10 · err 5.4pts |
Toledo Rockets vs Temple Owls Sat, Sep 19, 3:00 PM | 33.6–18.4 | -15.2 -5.5 | +9.7 | ✗ Incorrect Final 49-48 · err 14.2pts |
Texas A&M Aggies vs Kentucky Wildcats Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM | 41.2–18.3 | -22.9 -16.5 | +6.4 | ✗ Incorrect Final 21-31 · err 32.9pts |
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Florida State Seminoles Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM | 35.1–19.9 | -15.2 -19.5 | -4.3 | ✓ Correct Final 50-36 · err 1.2pts |
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs USC Trojans Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM | 14.4–43.2 | +28.8 +21.5 | -7.3 | ✗ Incorrect Final 35-42 · err 21.8pts |
Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM | 37.1–30.7 | -6.4 -1.5 | +4.9 | ✓ Correct Final 41-31 · err 3.6pts |
Utah Utes vs Utah State Aggies Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM | 42.8–8.8 | -34 -27.5 | +6.5 | ✓ Correct Final 33-0 · err 1.0pts |
Michigan Wolverines vs UTEP Miners Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM | 41.7–0.0 adj. (naive: 39.1) | -41.7 -34.5 | +7.2 | ✓ Correct Final 52-17 · err 6.7pts |
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Miami (OH) RedHawks Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM | 36.8–24.9 | -11.9 -15.5 | -3.6 | ✓ Correct Final 35-31 · err 7.9pts |
Indiana Hoosiers vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Sat, Sep 19, 4:00 PM | 52.5–17.4 | -35.1 -44.5 | -9.4 | ✓ Correct Final 38-0 · err 2.9pts |
Duke Blue Devils vs Stanford Cardinal Sat, Sep 19, 4:00 PM | 24.0–23.1 | -0.9 -10.5 | -9.6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 35-7 · err 27.1pts |
Liberty Flames vs Ball State Cardinals Sat, Sep 19, 4:00 PM | 28.4–19.8 | -8.6 -14.5 | -5.9 | ✗ Incorrect Final 51-15 · err 27.4pts |
Baylor Bears vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Sat, Sep 19, 4:00 PM | 34.5–21.5 | -13 -20.5 | -7.5 | ✓ Correct Final 36-19 · err 4.0pts |
South Carolina Gamecocks vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Sat, Sep 19, 4:15 PM | 29.5–29.7 | +0.2 -4 | -4.2 | ✓ Correct Final 34-41 · err 6.8pts |
Old Dominion Monarchs vs East Carolina Pirates Sat, Sep 19, 6:00 PM | 32.0–21.2 | -10.8 -2.5 | +8.3 | ✗ Incorrect Final 17-20 · err 13.8pts |
Florida Atlantic Owls vs Florida International Panthers Sat, Sep 19, 6:00 PM | 39.8–19.1 | -20.7 -6.5 | +14.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 16-10 · err 14.7pts |
App State Mountaineers vs Charlotte 49ers Sat, Sep 19, 6:00 PM | 43.5–17.3 | -26.2 -17.5 | +8.7 | ✗ Incorrect Final 26-21 · err 21.2pts |
Missouri State Bears vs Marshall Thundering Herd Sat, Sep 19, 6:30 PM | 26.5–25.6 | -0.9 +4 | +4.9 | ✗ Incorrect Final 24-30 · err 6.9pts |
Missouri Tigers vs Troy Trojans Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM | 48.0–7.4 | -40.6 -27.5 | +13.1 | ✗ Incorrect Final 27-17 · err 30.6pts |
Auburn Tigers vs Florida Gators Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM | 26.9–29.3 | +2.4 +2.5 | +0.1 | ✗ Incorrect Final 39-44 · err 2.6pts |
UCF Knights vs Georgia State Panthers Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM | 34.7–18.4 | -16.3 -17.5 | -1.2 | ✓ Correct Final 44-30 · err 2.3pts |
Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs UConn Huskies Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM | 27.4–26.5 | -0.9 +3 | +3.9 | ✗ Incorrect Final 20-48 · err 28.9pts |
Rice Owls vs Western Michigan Broncos Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM | 17.5–24.3 | +6.8 +9.5 | +2.7 | ✓ Correct Final 21-28 · err 0.2pts |
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Nevada Wolf Pack Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM | 21.1–26.8 | +5.7 +3.5 | -2.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 27-20 · err 12.7pts |
South Alabama Jaguars vs Ohio Bobcats Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM | 31.4–26.1 | -5.3 -6.5 | -1.2 | ✓ Correct Final 41-36 · err 0.3pts |
Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs Georgia Southern Eagles Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM | 24.1–14.4 | -9.7 -3 | +6.7 | ✓ Correct Final 31-27 · err 5.7pts |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Michigan State Spartans Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM | 38.4–10.0 | -28.4 -29.5 | -1.1 | ✓ Correct Final 27-10 · err 11.4pts |
Ole Miss Rebels vs LSU Tigers Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM | 30.6–31.9 | +1.3 +2.5 | +1.2 | ✓ Correct Final 32-24 · err 9.3pts |
Colorado State Rams vs BYU Cougars Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM | 21.8–39.6 | +17.8 +17.5 | -0.3 | ✓ Correct Final 23-41 · err 0.2pts |
Oklahoma Sooners vs New Mexico Lobos Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM | 39.3–9.8 | -29.5 -21.5 | +8 | ✗ Incorrect Final 14-6 · err 21.5pts |
Virginia Cavaliers vs West Virginia Mountaineers Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM · Neutral site | 30.8–23.1 | -7.7 -10.5 | -2.8 | ✓ Correct Final 27-38 · err 18.7pts |
Northwestern Wildcats vs Colorado Buffaloes Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM | 29.9–20.2 | -9.7 -3.5 | +6.2 | ✓ Correct Final 41-7 · err 24.3pts |
Maryland Terrapins vs Virginia Tech Hokies Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM | 31.4–32.7 | +1.3 +2.5 | +1.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 26-35 · err 7.7pts |
Tennessee Volunteers vs Kennesaw State Owls Sat, Sep 19, 7:45 PM | 52.7–4.4 | -48.3 -35.5 | +12.8 | ✗ Incorrect Final 42-9 · err 15.3pts |
Texas Longhorns vs UTSA Roadrunners Sat, Sep 19, 8:00 PM | 51.8–5.7 | -46.1 -30.5 | +15.6 | ✗ Incorrect Final 30-6 · err 22.1pts |
TCU Horned Frogs vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Sat, Sep 19, 8:00 PM | 37.6–16.9 | -20.7 -19.5 | +1.2 | ✓ Correct Final 31-7 · err 3.3pts |
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns vs UAB Blazers Sat, Sep 19, 8:00 PM | 40.2–18.4 | -21.8 -7.5 | +14.3 | ✗ Incorrect Final 21-14 · err 14.8pts |
San Diego State Aztecs vs James Madison Dukes Sat, Sep 19, 10:00 PM | 31.8–26.5 | -5.3 -1.5 | +3.8 | ✗ Incorrect Final 13-26 · err 18.3pts |
Arizona Wildcats vs Northern Illinois Huskies Sat, Sep 19, 10:30 PM | 42.5–0.8 | -41.7 -33.5 | +8.2 | ✗ Incorrect Final 42-17 · err 16.7pts |
Sacramento State Hornets vs North Dakota State Bison Sat, Sep 19, 10:30 PM | 13.7–34.8 | +21.1 +27.5 | +6.4 | ✓ Correct Final 10-31 · err 0.1pts |
UCLA Bruins vs Purdue Boilermakers Sat, Sep 19, 11:00 PM | 34.3–26.8 | -7.5 -14.5 | -7 | ✓ Correct Final 52-38 · err 6.5pts |
San José State Spartans vs Fresno State Bulldogs Sat, Sep 19, 11:00 PM | 23.5–25.9 | +2.4 +5.5 | +3.1 | ✗ Incorrect Final 10-26 · err 13.6pts |