🎓 NCAAF Projections
Week 2, week to date — projected score and margin for every FBS-vs-FBS game across all of this week's game days, compared to the market line at the moment each projection was generated.
Season-to-date ATS record
197-208-1
406 graded — no_market/no_lean games excluded
Season avg margin error
13.1 pts
over 454 settled games — still in-sample, see note below
Projected scores for every FBS matchup this week. This model is new and unproven — we publish it so its accuracy can be checked in public, not because it beats the market. Early testing suggests an average miss of roughly 12 points per game, and real accuracy is likely worse until we have a few weeks of results. FCS opponents don't have ratings yet, so those games aren't listed. Market lines shown are from the time we generated the projection, not kickoff. Gap is how far our projection sits from the market — positive means we like the home team more than the market does, negative means less.
Week-to-date ATS record
0-0
0 graded — no_market/no_lean games excluded
Avg margin error
12.6 pts
over 47 settled games — still in-sample, see note above
| Matchup | Score | Model / Market | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Texas A&M Aggies vs Arizona State Sun Devils Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM | 41.2–22.7 | -18.5 no line | — | No market Final 48-20 · err 9.5pts |
Michigan Wolverines vs Oklahoma Sooners Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM | 13.4–22.4 | +9 no line | — | No market Final 17-10 · err 16.0pts |
Temple Owls vs Penn State Nittany Lions Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM | 10.9–36.4 | +25.5 no line | — | No market Final 9-27 · err 7.5pts |
Kansas State Wildcats vs Washington State Cougars Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM | 37.6–15.8 | -21.8 no line | — | No market Final 34-7 · err 6.3pts |
Virginia Tech Hokies vs Old Dominion Monarchs Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM | 39.5–18.8 | -20.7 no line | — | No market Final 44-21 · err 2.3pts |
Purdue Boilermakers vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM | 32.9–25.4 | -7.5 no line | — | No market Final 36-38 · err 9.5pts |
Army Black Knights vs South Florida Bulls Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM | 27.2–16.4 | -10.8 no line | — | No market Final 24-28 · err 14.8pts |
East Carolina Pirates vs App State Mountaineers Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM | 29.9–27.9 | -2 no line | — | No market Final 24-27 · err 5.0pts |
Georgia Bulldogs vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Sat, Sep 12, 12:45 PM | 52.8–12.2 | -40.6 no line | — | No market Final 70-20 · err 9.4pts |
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Oregon Ducks Sat, Sep 12, 1:30 PM | 11.5–34.8 | +23.3 no line | — | No market Final 39-31 · err 31.3pts |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Rice Owls Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM | 48.3–0.0 adj. (naive: 42.4) | -48.3 no line | — | No market Final 52-0 · err 3.7pts |
Kentucky Wildcats vs Alabama Crimson Tide Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM | 23.9–34.0 | +10.1 no line | — | No market Final 17-45 · err 17.9pts |
BYU Cougars vs Arizona Wildcats Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM | 32.7–23.0 | -9.7 no line | — | No market Final 28-17 · err 1.3pts |
Washington Huskies vs Utah State Aggies Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM | 39.5–0.0 adj. (naive: 38) | -39.5 no line | — | No market Final 16-14 · err 37.5pts |
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM | 37.9–33.7 | -4.2 no line | — | No market Final 13-38 · err 29.2pts |
Syracuse Orange vs California Golden Bears Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM | 38.2–31.8 | -6.4 no line | — | No market Final 18-21 · err 9.4pts |
Illinois Fighting Illini vs Duke Blue Devils Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM | 35.1–5.6 | -29.5 no line | — | No market Final 27-31 · err 33.5pts |
Michigan State Spartans vs Eastern Michigan Eagles Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM | 40.0–7.2 | -32.8 no line | — | No market Final 35-7 · err 4.8pts |
UConn Huskies vs Maryland Terrapins Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM | 35.1–27.6 | -7.5 no line | — | No market Final 14-38 · err 31.5pts |
Texas State Bobcats vs UTSA Roadrunners Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM | 41.7–22.1 | -19.6 no line | — | No market Final 26-31 · err 24.6pts |
UAB Blazers vs UL Monroe Warhawks Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM | 48.6–22.4 | -26.2 no line | — | No market Final 26-20 · err 20.2pts |
Pittsburgh Panthers vs UCF Knights Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM | 52.5–25.2 | -27.3 no line | — | No market Final 12-7 · err 22.3pts |
North Texas Mean Green vs UNLV Rebels Sat, Sep 12, 3:45 PM | 29.2–22.8 | -6.4 no line | — | No market Final 44-6 · err 31.6pts |
Vanderbilt Commodores vs Delaware Blue Hens Sat, Sep 12, 4:15 PM | 26.1–15.3 | -10.8 no line | — | No market Final 35-26 · err 1.8pts |
Boise State Broncos vs Memphis Tigers Sat, Sep 12, 6:00 PM | 38.2–20.8 | -17.4 no line | — | No market Final 38-20 · err 0.6pts |
Florida International Panthers vs Buffalo Bulls Sat, Sep 12, 6:00 PM | 26.1–4.3 | -21.8 no line | — | No market Final 33-20 · err 8.8pts |
Ohio Bobcats vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks Sat, Sep 12, 6:00 PM | 36.0–23.0 | -13 no line | — | No market Final 29-27 · err 11.0pts |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Tennessee Volunteers Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM | 16.7–27.9 | +11.2 no line | — | No market Final 24-45 · err 9.8pts |
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Bowling Green Falcons Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM | 41.7–8.9 | -32.8 no line | — | No market Final 56-7 · err 16.2pts |
Sam Houston Bearkats vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM | 12.6–24.9 | +12.3 no line | — | No market Final 17-23 · err 6.3pts |
Tulane Green Wave vs South Alabama Jaguars Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM | 23.0–11.1 | -11.9 no line | — | No market Final 28-24 · err 7.9pts |
Kennesaw State Owls vs Georgia State Panthers Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM | 32.7–25.2 | -7.5 no line | — | No market Final 17-31 · err 21.5pts |
Marshall Thundering Herd vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM | 30.2–17.2 | -13 no line | — | No market Final 28-26 · err 11.0pts |
UCLA Bruins vs San Diego State Aztecs Sat, Sep 12, 7:15 PM | 42.0–30.1 | -11.9 no line | — | No market Final 28-10 · err 6.1pts |
Texas Longhorns vs Ohio State Buckeyes Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM | 35.1–27.6 | -7.5 no line | — | No market Final 24-23 · err 6.5pts |
LSU Tigers vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM | 59.4–15.5 | -43.9 no line | — | No market Final 45-14 · err 12.9pts |
Oregon State Beavers vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM | 22.2–24.6 | +2.4 no line | — | No market Final 24-35 · err 8.6pts |
Iowa Hawkeyes vs Iowa State Cyclones Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM | 21.1–21.3 | +0.2 no line | — | No market Final 16-13 · err 3.2pts |
Clemson Tigers vs Georgia Southern Eagles Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM | 29.9–14.7 | -15.2 no line | — | No market Final 22-7 · err 0.2pts |
Florida Atlantic Owls vs Navy Midshipmen Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM | 40.4–32.9 | -7.5 no line | — | No market Final 38-30 · err 0.5pts |
Ole Miss Rebels vs Charlotte 49ers Sat, Sep 12, 7:45 PM | 68.2–15.5 | -52.7 no line | — | No market Final 41-9 · err 20.7pts |
Auburn Tigers vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles Sat, Sep 12, 7:45 PM | 36.8–4.0 | -32.8 no line | — | No market Final 43-8 · err 2.2pts |
Air Force Falcons vs North Dakota State Bison Sat, Sep 12, 10:00 PM | 19.2–15.0 | -4.2 no line | — | No market Final 32-38 · err 10.2pts |
Utah Utes vs Arkansas Razorbacks Sat, Sep 12, 10:15 PM | 46.1–16.6 | -29.5 no line | — | No market Final 43-10 · err 3.5pts |
Fresno State Bulldogs vs Sacramento State Hornets Sat, Sep 12, 10:30 PM | 30.3–11.8 | -18.5 no line | — | No market Final 49-3 · err 27.5pts |
USC Trojans vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Sat, Sep 12, 11:00 PM | 41.7–6.6 | -35.1 no line | — | No market Final 49-30 · err 16.1pts |
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors vs New Mexico State Aggies Sat, Sep 12, 11:59 PM | 29.8–21.2 | -8.6 no line | — | No market Final 29-19 · err 1.4pts |