NFL Picks — September 21, 2026

The Giants present a rare structural profile: a 16.1% QB hit rate (strong pass protection), a nearly neutral run trench (-0.018 EPA/carry), and an elite QB in J. Dart posting 0.707 EPA/play and 13.4 CPOE -- numbers that hold up even under pressure (-0.013 EPA). Situational efficiency is historically dominant with 81.8% third-down conversion and 100% red zone TD rate. The Rams' data is largely unavailable, making it impossible to construct a counterargument from the data block, and the Giants' measurables show a decisive structural edge across the two primary signal factors.