NFL Picks — September 24, 2026

Green Bay holds a meaningful QB edge with Love posting a -0.075 EPA/play vs Rush's -0.635, and a significantly better EPA under pressure (-0.630 vs -1.335), signaling a structural performance gap independent of trench context. The trench picture is mixed -- Atlanta limits QB hits better (16.4% vs 23.1%), but Green Bay edges run efficiency (-0.146 vs -0.435 rush EPA/carry favors Atlanta, penalizing Green Bay), leaving a modest net trench lean to Atlanta on pass but Green Bay on run; the QB gap is large enough to anchor a pick. Green Bay's home field at Lambeau, superior SOS (75 vs 50), and a favorable travel disadvantage for Atlanta support the lean.