NFL Picks — September 28, 2026

Chicago holds a measurable trench edge, generating a better run EPA/carry (0.140 vs -0.063) and a comparable pass rush hit rate (18.6% vs 16.2%), giving the Bears a net structural advantage at the line of scrimmage. C. Williams also posts a superior EPA/play (0.292 vs 0.148) and a better EPA under pressure (-0.557 vs -0.667), meaning his QB edge is not purely a product of trench dominance and carries independent signal. Chicago's SOS (67 vs 17) indicates its results have been tested against significantly harder competition, lending more credibility to its metrics, though penalty discipline (10.0 vs 4.5 per game) and situational efficiency gaps temper confidence.