NFL Picks — October 22, 2026

C. Williams holds a meaningful structural advantage over D. Maye across all four QB metrics -- EPA/play (0.282 vs 0.169), CPOE (9.8 vs 5.2), and rushing EPA -- representing a genuine talent gap rather than noise. The trench edge is narrow but leans Chicago on both pass and run dimensions, giving Williams a favorable platform to operate from at home. However, New England's red zone TD% (55.6%) and 2-minute drill EPA (+0.011 vs -0.048) suggest the Patriots execute better in high-leverage moments, and the QB gap, while real, is not large enough to constitute a decisive structural edge under this model's threshold.