MLB Picks · July 25, 2026
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals
Strong Lean
Nationals ML
-144
74
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Arizona Diamondbacks · Away
Mitch Bratt (LHP)
Washington Nationals · Home
Foster Griffin (LHP)
AI Analysis
Foster Griffin is one of the best pitchers in this slate with a 2.68 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 11-2 record over 117.1 innings — a dominant profile. Washington's offense vs LHP (AVG .268/.789 OPS) is a favorable split since Bratt is LHP, and with CJ Abrams (.393 L14), Curtis Mead (.385 L14), Nasim Nuñez (.348 L14), and James Wood anchoring the lineup, the Nats have plenty of heat. Bratt has been awful (5.06 ERA, 1.78 WHIP in just 10.2 IP) and is clearly not a reliable starter. The Diamondbacks' top hitters — Marte, Carroll, Perdomo — are all cold (❄️) recently, making this a strong lean on Washington.
Concerns
- •AZ is 8-2 in L10 and riding a 4-game win streak
- •AZ offense vs LHP is strong (.275/.787) — same handedness as Griffin
- •Bratt's small sample (10.2 IP) adds uncertainty but the ERA is alarming
- •Washington is -144, which is slight negative value territory
Factor Breakdown