Casey Mize has been excellent in 2026 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, representing a clear pitching edge over Wacha (3.66 ERA, 1.17 WHIP). Detroit holds a meaningful team ERA advantage (3.61 vs 4.90) and has won 3 straight with a 6-4 L10. Kansas City's offense has been anemic in their last 10 games (3.4 R/G) and their lineup has several cold hitters. The Tigers' home advantage with Mize's strong profile supports a moderate lean, though KC has some hot bats in Massey, Loftin, Collins, and Thomas.

Foster Griffin is one of the best pitchers in this slate with a 2.68 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 11-2 record over 117.1 innings — a dominant profile. Washington's offense vs LHP (AVG .268/.789 OPS) is a favorable split since Bratt is LHP, and with CJ Abrams (.393 L14), Curtis Mead (.385 L14), Nasim Nuñez (.348 L14), and James Wood anchoring the lineup, the Nats have plenty of heat. Bratt has been awful (5.06 ERA, 1.78 WHIP in just 10.2 IP) and is clearly not a reliable starter. The Diamondbacks' top hitters — Marte, Carroll, Perdomo — are all cold (❄️) recently, making this a strong lean on Washington.

Robbie Ray (3.33 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) holds a clear edge over Ryan Johnson (6.10 ERA, 1.43 WHIP), who has been hit hard this season. San Francisco's offense vs RHP (.254/.736) is their better split and they face a RHP in Johnson. However, both teams have been mediocre recently (3.9 vs 2.7 R/G L10 for SF/LAA respectively), and the Giants' lineup has several cold performers in Adames, Schmitt, Lee, and Susac. The Angels' Neto, Trout, and Schanuel are hot, partially offsetting Johnson's struggles. A moderate lean on SF based on pitching.

This is an elite pitching matchup with both aces, but the edge goes to Boston. Sonny Gray is magnificent at 2.48 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 12-1 record — one of the best in the AL. The Red Sox are 9-1 in their last 10 games with a powerful recent offense (5.4 R/G L10), featuring Willson Contreras (.354 L14, .944 OPS), Durbin, Yoshida, and Monasterio all hot. Toronto is just 2-8 in L10 with a brutal 2.8 R/G recently, and multiple hitters are cold. While Cease is excellent (2.67 ERA, 155 K), Boston's run support and form give them the edge at near-even odds.

Despite Miami being favored, the Marlins are on a catastrophic 0-10 losing streak with only 2.5 R/G in their last 10 games — their offense has completely collapsed. San Diego has been hot offensively (6.4 R/G L10) with several hitters surging (France .327, Machado .315, Rengifo .435, Cronenworth .292, Fermin .222 all hot recently). Eury Pérez (3.53 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) is the better pitcher, but the Marlins' historic cold streak and the Padres' +109 underdog value make this lean toward San Diego. Vásquez is mediocre (4.72 ERA), so this is an offense-driven play.

Philadelphia's starter is TBD, making it impossible to properly evaluate the pitching matchup — the most heavily weighted factor. Weathers has been inconsistent (4.40 ERA, 3-7) and the Yankees' offense has cooled recently (3.3 R/G L10). The Phillies have several cold key hitters (Harper, Marsh, Sosa) and are on a 3-game losing streak. Without knowing Philadelphia's starter, this is an automatic pass regardless of other factors.

Nick Martinez has been outstanding in 2026 with a 2.59 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 9-2 record — a clear edge over Bibee (3.86 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). Tampa Bay fields the best offense in this matchup with a .739 OPS, 4.56 R/G, and a strong lineup (.263/.753 vs RHP) featuring Caminero (.924 OPS, .315 L14), Aranda (.296 L14), and multiple hot hitters. Cleveland's offense has been inconsistent and on a 3-game losing streak. The Rays' 60-43 record reflects a legitimately superior team, and Martinez's elite performance gives them the pitching edge needed.

This is a genuinely even matchup between two quality starters and well-matched offenses. Skenes (3.43 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 138 K) has a slight edge over Imanaga (3.91 ERA, 1.11 WHIP), but both are solid. Pittsburgh's offense is stronger overall (.760 OPS, 5.24 R/G) but their splits vs LHP (.251/.711) are considerably worse than vs RHP. Chicago's lineup also faces a tough right-hander in Skenes with weaker vs-RHP splits (.238/.736). Both teams have comparable recent form (6-4 L10). Too even to take a confident side.

Atlanta is the better team (61-42, .592) with significantly better recent form — 6.0 R/G in their last 10 games with a .279/.843 L10 slash, and riding a 3-game win streak. While Elder (4.06 ERA) isn't dominant, he matches up reasonably well against Young (3.25 ERA, 1.31 WHIP), who allows more baserunners than his ERA suggests. The Braves' lineup is loaded with Baldwin (.365 L14), Riley hot, Harris II (.270 L14) all contributing. At near-even odds (-105), the Braves' team quality edge provides moderate value.

Minnesota's starter is TBD, which eliminates the ability to evaluate the dominant pitching factor. Barnett has a minimal sample (21.1 IP, 4.64 ERA) making him an unknown quantity as well. The Twins are favored at -159, which requires an overwhelming edge that simply cannot be confirmed without a known starter. Both teams are middling offenses in recent form. Pass until lineups are confirmed.

Sean Burke has been excellent this season (3.20 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 7-4 record in 112.1 IP) and is the clear pitching edge over Hunter Brown (4.05 ERA, 1.45 WHIP in only 40 IP). Chicago's lineup vs RHP (.243/.733) holds up well, and the White Sox are 7-3 in L10 with 5.8 R/G recently. Houston's Brown has the elevated WHIP that suggests traffic on the bases. Yordan Alvarez is a monster (.345 L14) and Peña/Paredes are hot for Houston, but Burke's home advantage and stronger overall profile edges the White Sox at -126 (reasonable value).

Milwaukee is the best team in the NL Central at 64-39 with a superior pitching staff (3.45 ERA, 3.75 RA/G) vs Colorado's struggling rotation (5.47 ERA, 5.70 RA/G). Feltner has a 5.48 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, while Gasser (4.91 ERA in 51 IP) isn't dominant but is clearly better. Colorado's splits vs LHP (.256/.708) are weaker. However, -238 is steep pricing and Gasser's ERA is elevated — you're paying a large premium for a team that isn't pitching at its best. The team quality gap exists but the price is prohibitive.

Yamamoto is arguably the best pitcher on this entire slate — 2.78 ERA, an elite 0.88 WHIP, and 113 K in 119.2 IP with a 10-6 record. He faces a Mets lineup that is struggling badly (2.7 R/G L10, 3-7 in L10, L2 streak) with multiple cold key hitters in Soto, Semien, and others. The Dodgers are the best team in baseball at 66-38 with an elite offense (.774 OPS, 5.18 R/G). McLean is a quality arm (3.34 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 135 K), but the gap between Yamamoto and McLean, combined with LA's offensive superiority, supports the Dodgers despite -156 pricing.

Hunter Greene's 6.06 ERA is alarming, but this comes in a tiny 16.1 IP sample — he may be returning from injury or just starting to ramp up, making evaluation difficult. Pallante (4.02 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) is a known commodity but unexciting. St. Louis is 3-7 in L10 with a collapsed offense recently (3.4 R/G, .204/.556 L10). Cincinnati is on a 3-game win streak with 4.3 R/G L10. Too many uncertainties with Greene's sample and both teams are mediocre, making this a pass.

This is a genuinely even matchup. Woo (4.16 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) and Eovaldi (4.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) are nearly identical in quality. Texas has the better recent offensive form (4.9 R/G L10 vs 3.8 R/G) with Nimmo (.346 L14), Langford (.328 L14), and Jung hot, but Seattle's pitching staff (3.61 ERA, 3.88 RA/G) is elite and holds a defensive edge. Seattle is on a 3-game losing streak despite good pitching metrics — their offense simply isn't producing. At near-pick'em odds (-114/-105), there isn't enough separation to justify a play.

MLB Picks — July 25, 2026

Strong Leans

AZ @ WSH

TOR @ BOS

CLE @ TB

LAD @ NYM

Leans

KC @ DET

LAA @ SF

SD @ MIA

ATL @ BAL

HOU @ CWS

COL @ MIL

Passes

NYY @ PHI

CHC @ PIT

ATH @ MIN

CIN @ STL

SEA @ TEX