MLB Picks · July 25, 2026
Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox
Strong Lean
Red Sox ML
-109
75
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Toronto Blue Jays · Away
Dylan Cease (RHP)
Boston Red Sox · Home
Sonny Gray (RHP)
AI Analysis
This is an elite pitching matchup with both aces, but the edge goes to Boston. Sonny Gray is magnificent at 2.48 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 12-1 record — one of the best in the AL. The Red Sox are 9-1 in their last 10 games with a powerful recent offense (5.4 R/G L10), featuring Willson Contreras (.354 L14, .944 OPS), Durbin, Yoshida, and Monasterio all hot. Toronto is just 2-8 in L10 with a brutal 2.8 R/G recently, and multiple hitters are cold. While Cease is excellent (2.67 ERA, 155 K), Boston's run support and form give them the edge at near-even odds.
Concerns
- •Dylan Cease is elite (2.67 ERA, 155 K) and could neutralize Boston's lineup
- •Boston's offense vs RHP (.240/.688) is weaker than vs LHP
- •Near-pick'em odds (-109/-110) means little margin for error
- •Jarren Duran is slumping (.167 L14)
Factor Breakdown