MLB Picks · September 4, 2026
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles
Lean
Boston Red Sox ML
-120
65
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Boston Red Sox · Away
Ranger Suarez (LHP)
Baltimore Orioles · Home
Shane Baz (RHP)
AI Analysis
Boston has a modest edge here behind Ranger Suarez (ERA 3.64, WHIP 1.24, 119 Ks) against a Baltimore team with Shane Baz (ERA 4.01, WHIP 1.35, 5-14 record). The Red Sox have solid team pitching (3.60 ERA, 3.43 RA/G) and Baltimore's offense vs LHP (.239/.722) is only moderate. Baltimore is on a 3-game losing streak and Baz's dismal win-loss record suggests poor run support or inconsistency. At -120, the value is acceptable but not compelling — the edge is real but moderate.
Concerns
- •Boston offense vs RHP slightly weaker (.247/.718) vs their overall numbers
- •Boston L10 is only 4-6 — recent form is underwhelming
- •Multiple Boston hitters (Rafaela, Monasterio, Rutschman) are cold in L14
- •Baltimore's L10 offense (5.7 R/G) has actually been strong despite losing streak
Factor Breakdown