Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles

Sonny Gray has been superb this season (2.82 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 128 K in 143.2 IP, 16-4) — one of the best records in the AL — compared to Bassitt's 4.97 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, which is a significant pitching mismatch. Boston's team ERA (3.57) and RA/G (3.40) are both superior, and Gray's track record justifies confidence. The -130 price is neutral to slight negative, and at that number the value is reasonable given Gray's dominance. Baltimore is on a L4 losing streak and multiple Oriole bats are cold.