MLB Picks · September 20, 2026
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays
Lean
Rays ML
-155
67
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Boston Red Sox · Away
Patrick Sandoval (LHP)
Tampa Bay Rays · Home
Griffin Jax (RHP)
AI Analysis
Patrick Sandoval's 4.99 ERA and alarming 1.79 WHIP in 57.2 IP is a major red flag — he fails the pitching gate cleanly. Tampa Bay is the superior team (94-60, .610) with a dominant record and 8-2 in L10. Griffin Jax (3.80 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) is a reasonable starter, and the Rays' lineup features Junior Caminero (41 HR, .895 OPS) as a standout threat. Boston's offense has sputtered (3.0 R/G last 10) with multiple cold bats. However, Sandoval's small IP sample and the -155 price keep this from being a strong lean.
Concerns
- •Sandoval 1.79 WHIP is alarming — pitching gate fails for strong lean
- •Multiple cold BOS bats (Abreu, Contreras, Monasterio, Wong)
- •Rays offense hits LHP worse than RHP (.251/.690 vs LHP)
- •Jax is a converted reliever with 104 IP — workload questions
- •Price at -155 is slight negative value
Factor Breakdown