MLB Picks · September 27, 2026
Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox
Strong Lean
Cubs ML
-126
71
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Chicago Cubs · Away
Shota Imanaga (LHP)
Boston Red Sox · Home
TBD
AI Analysis
Imanaga (3.74 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 171 K in 173.1 IP) is one of the better starters on the slate and faces a Boston team whose starter is TBD — a significant pitching mismatch. The Cubs' offense (.767 OPS, 5.34 R/G) is the strongest on the slate and features Michael Busch (.333 L14) and Seiya Suzuki (.296 L14) among their hot hitters. Boston's offense vs LHP is decent (.248/.733) but their last 10 games show only 2.2 R/G and multiple cold hitters (Abreu ❄️, Contreras ❄️, Monasterio ❄️). At -126, the Cubs offer fair value with a clear pitching and offensive edge.
Concerns
- •Boston TBD starter is unknown — could be an opener or a reasonable arm
- •Red Sox hit LHP at .248/.733 (not a weak split)
- •Cubs L5 shows 3.8 R/G — offense has cooled recently
- •Cubs ERA (4.17 / RA/G 5.19) indicates bullpen vulnerability
- •Boston on W2 streak with home field
Factor Breakdown