MLB Picks · July 10, 2026
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds
Strong Lean
Chicago Cubs ML
-118
77
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Chicago Cubs · Away
Shota Imanaga (LHP)
Cincinnati Reds · Home
Hunter Greene (RHP)
AI Analysis
Hunter Greene's 2026 line is catastrophic: 21.60 ERA, 3.30 WHIP in 3.1 IP — he is clearly injured/returning from IL or is a sample-size outlier, but any pitcher with a 3.30 WHIP is an extreme risk. Imanaga counters with a solid 4.28 ERA/1.10 WHIP over 103 innings with 100 strikeouts. The Cubs' offense has been excellent recently (6.2 R/G L10, .820 OPS) with Pete Crow-Armstrong on fire (.353 L14), and Chicago hits RHP at .239/.738. Cincinnati's offense is cold (3.4 R/G L10) with multiple struggling bats. The Cubs at -118 represents strong value given the pitching mismatch.
Concerns
- •Greene's line may reflect a spot start after IL stint — could be capped on pitch count
- •Cincinnati hits LHP well (.239/.761) — lineup can produce vs Imanaga
- •Several Cubs cold bats (Bregman, Busch, Happ) could suppress offense
- •Imanaga's ERA (4.28) is not dominant; relies on low WHIP and K rate
Factor Breakdown