Both starters are struggling in 2026 — Nola owns a 5.87 ERA/1.46 WHIP and Flaherty a 4.60 ERA/1.45 WHIP, neither clears the pitching gate for a strong lean. Detroit's impressive L10 (8-2, W5 streak) and superior team ERA (3.66 vs 4.24) favor the home side, but their lineup has numerous cold bats and the pitching edge is not compelling enough. Philadelphia's lineup has more star power (Schwarber 32 HR, Harper) but multiple cold contributors. With both starters equally shaky and near-even moneylines, this is a pass.

Braxton Ashcraft has been excellent in 2026 — 3.24 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 9-3 W-L over 108.1 IP — representing a genuine ace-level performance. Pittsburgh's offense is red-hot: 6.3 R/G over the last 10 games with an .836 OPS, and multiple hitters in scorching form (Gonzales .383, Esmerlyn Valdez .365/.993 L14). Milwaukee counters with Sproat posting a 5.13 ERA, and while the Brewers are the best team by record, their recent offensive output has been slightly below season average. Ashcraft's pitching edge is the anchor here, and PIT at -126 offers neutral-to-acceptable value given the matchup.

Carson Palmquist has thrown only 6.1 IP in 2026 with a 7.11 ERA and 1.58 WHIP — essentially an unknown quantity making a spot start, which is a significant red flag. Weathers is unimpressive at 4.29 ERA but is a legitimate rotation piece with 92.1 IP of track record. Washington's offense has been scorching (6.5 R/G L10, .925 OPS L5) and their lineup hits LHP well (.267/.780), which caps this pick. However, NYY's superior pitching (team ERA 3.41) and the fact that Washington is starting a near-unproven starter tips the balance toward New York. Yankees are a moderate lean despite cold bats from Bellinger, Rice, Goldschmidt, and Wells recently — the -162 price is a concern but the matchup justifies a lean.

Brandon Young's 3.38 ERA and 7-2 record favor Baltimore on the mound, but his 1.36 WHIP and modest 62 K in 77.1 IP suggest he's pitching above his peripherals. KC has actually been scoring at a 5.3 R/G clip over the last 10 games despite a poor overall record, with Bobby Witt Jr. leading a functional offense. Baltimore's lineup is riddled with cold bats (Henderson, Basallo, Taveras, Rutschman, Cowser all ❄️) and their L10 offense sits at just 4.0 R/G. The pitching edge for Baltimore is real but not dominant, and neither team's offense inspires confidence. Too many contradictions for a clean play.

Hunter Greene's 2026 line is catastrophic: 21.60 ERA, 3.30 WHIP in 3.1 IP — he is clearly injured/returning from IL or is a sample-size outlier, but any pitcher with a 3.30 WHIP is an extreme risk. Imanaga counters with a solid 4.28 ERA/1.10 WHIP over 103 innings with 100 strikeouts. The Cubs' offense has been excellent recently (6.2 R/G L10, .820 OPS) with Pete Crow-Armstrong on fire (.353 L14), and Chicago hits RHP at .239/.738. Cincinnati's offense is cold (3.4 R/G L10) with multiple struggling bats. The Cubs at -118 represents strong value given the pitching mismatch.

Nick Martinez has been one of the better starters in the AL in 2026: 2.61 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 7-2 over 100 innings. He's a clear edge over Luis Castillo's 4.79 ERA/1.33 WHIP. Tampa Bay owns a strong record (54-37) and their top of the order (Caminero 27 HR, Yandy Diaz .326/.903, Aranda .314 L14, Simpson hot) is dangerous. Seattle's offense is the worst in this matchup — .691 OPS, 4.05 R/G, multiple cold bats (Crawford, Canzone, Garver), and only 4.4 R/G L10. Rays at -115 is near neutral value with a genuine pitching and team quality edge.

Miami is on a 6-game winning streak with an 8-2 L10 record and has been historically hot at the plate: 7.5 R/G over the last 10 games with a 1.001 OPS — nearly every lineup contributor is red-hot (Lopez .393, Edwards .353, Hicks .339, Sanoja .419, Stowers .310 L14). Alcantara is a durable workhorse (10-4, 4.00 ERA, 123.2 IP) while Parker Messick is excellent (2.80 ERA) but Cleveland's offense is light (.679 OPS, 3.97 R/G) with multiple cold bats. The Marlins' offensive explosion combined with home-field advantage and strong recent form makes this a clear play, despite Messick being a quality pitcher who provides some resistance.

Sonny Gray is having an outstanding 2026 season: 2.61 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10-1 W-L in 89.2 IP — a clear pitching advantage over McLean's 3.73 ERA. Boston is riding a 6-game winning streak (8-2 L10) and has meaningful offensive momentum. New York's offense is middle-of-the-road (.687 OPS, 4.19 R/G season) though they've been better recently (5.5 R/G L10). The Red Sox at +114 provide slight underdog value with a strong pitcher on the mound. Gray's 10-1 record and sub-3 ERA in nearly 90 innings is the anchor of this pick.

Jacob Lopez has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season: 7.04 ERA, 1.84 WHIP in 53.2 IP with weak strikeout numbers. Sean Burke counters with a solid 3.56 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 106 K in 98.2 IP. The Athletics are in a 1-9 L10 freefall and a 6-game losing streak, with their offense nearly dormant at 3.4 R/G over their last 10. Chicago's lineup has several intriguing bats (Murakami hot, Acuña hot, Vargas 20 HR) though their own offense is below average in the L10 (3.8 R/G). The pitching mismatch is the driver here, and CWS at -168 is steep but the Lopez advantage is real.

Hunter Brown has a 3.38 ERA in 29.1 IP — a small sample that limits confidence. Cal Quantrill's 3.35 ERA in 40.1 IP is similarly limited. Neither starter has logged enough innings to anchor a strong pitching lean. Houston's offense features Yordan Alvarez (.310/1.030 OPS, 29 HR) but he's been cold recently, and the lineup has several cold or unproductive bats. Texas has been better recently (6-4 L10) and Wyatt Langford is hot (.367 L14), but both teams are .500-range clubs. The pitching gate cannot be cleared with ~30-40 IP sample starters, making this a pass.

Grayson Rodriguez is in serious trouble in 2026: 8.06 ERA, 1.83 WHIP in only 25.2 IP — an extremely poor return from what was once a top prospect. Minnesota's lineup hits RHP at a strong .256/.761 clip, and several Twins are in form (Brooks Lee .304 L14, Austin Martin .320 L14, Larnach .298 L14). Matthews is unspectacular (4.43 ERA) but passable, and the Angels are 2-8 in their last 10 with a 1-game losing streak. Minnesota's home field and the Angels' abysmal starting pitching make this a moderate lean. The -156 price is steep for an uninspiring Twins team, so this stays short of a strong lean.

Chris Sale is having a dominant 2026 campaign: 2.27 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 112 K in 95 innings — one of the best pitching performances on today's slate. He faces a Cardinals lineup that hits LHP at .249/.713, which is below average. Atlanta's offense has been excellent lately (6.4 R/G L10, .797 OPS L5) with Olson, Harris, and Dubón all productive recently. St. Louis counters with Leahy's 3.86 ERA and 1.45 WHIP — mediocre numbers with low strikeout rates. The Braves are the better team with an elite pitcher, and while -168 is a step into negative value territory, Sale's dominance anchors the play.

Shane Bieber has posted a 9.00 ERA/2.08 WHIP in only 13 innings — clearly returning from injury/IL and representing a massive red flag for Toronto. However, JP Sears is also barely above replacement level in a tiny 15.1 IP sample (4.70 ERA). Toronto's offense struggles against LHP (.218/.652), and their L10 offense is dormant (3.5 R/G, .200 AVG). San Diego's own offense is weak (.671 OPS, 3.9 R/G) and they're 3-7 in the L10. Both teams are playing poor baseball with struggling or unproven starters — no clean edge exists despite Toronto's slight moneyline value at +104.

Shohei Ohtani is in historic form: 1.79 ERA, 0.95 WHIP in 85.2 IP — an absolutely dominant performance. The Dodgers are baseball's best team (61-33) with elite team depth, and their recent offense features Freddie Freeman on fire (.389 L14), Kyle Tucker hot (.341 L14), and Mookie Betts surging (.293 L14). Eduardo Rodriguez has been excellent himself (2.25 ERA) and Arizona hits LHP poorly (.224/.658), which limits Arizona's upside. However, the Dodgers' total package — Ohtani pitching and batting, home field, best record — creates a clear edge. The -267 price is significant negative value and prevents this from scoring higher; in a vacuum this is an 85+ game, but the price tag demands discipline.

Robbie Ray's 3.45 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over 101.2 innings represents a clear advantage over Tanner Gordon's 6.95 ERA/1.59 WHIP. Colorado hits LHP at only .256/.704, below their season average, and the Rockies' team ERA (5.49) and RA/G (5.74) are among baseball's worst. San Francisco's lineup has quality pieces (Arraez .326/.823, Devers hot .300 L14, Ramos .273 L14) and they hit Gordon's RHP well (.256/.740). The Rockies' Coors-inflated offense (6.5 R/G L10) will face a tougher environment at Oracle Park. SF at -149 is neutral-to-acceptable value for a moderate edge.

MLB Picks — July 10, 2026

Strong Leans

MIL @ PIT

CHC @ CIN

SEA @ TB

CLE @ MIA

ATL @ STL

AZ @ LAD

Leans

NYY @ WSH

BOS @ NYM

ATH @ CWS

LAA @ MIN

COL @ SF

Passes

PHI @ DET

KC @ BAL

HOU @ TEX

TOR @ SD