MLB Picks · July 10, 2026
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Strong Lean
Pittsburgh Pirates ML
-126
70
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Milwaukee Brewers · Away
Brandon Sproat (RHP)
Pittsburgh Pirates · Home
Braxton Ashcraft (RHP)
AI Analysis
Braxton Ashcraft has been excellent in 2026 — 3.24 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 9-3 W-L over 108.1 IP — representing a genuine ace-level performance. Pittsburgh's offense is red-hot: 6.3 R/G over the last 10 games with an .836 OPS, and multiple hitters in scorching form (Gonzales .383, Esmerlyn Valdez .365/.993 L14). Milwaukee counters with Sproat posting a 5.13 ERA, and while the Brewers are the best team by record, their recent offensive output has been slightly below season average. Ashcraft's pitching edge is the anchor here, and PIT at -126 offers neutral-to-acceptable value given the matchup.
Concerns
- •Brewers have the best record in baseball (59-34) — opponent quality is high
- •Sproat is inconsistent but Milwaukee's lineup is deep and hits RHP well (.261/.754)
- •Pirates on a 2-game losing streak heading in
- •Contreras, Chourio, Yelich all cold recently for MIL — may be due for breakout
Factor Breakdown