Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners

Chase Burns (2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 118 K in 102.2 IP, 11-1 record) is the best pitcher on the mound in this game by a wide margin over Castillo (4.93 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 3-8). Burns provides a dominant pitching edge. Seattle's offense is weak (.688 OPS, 4.06 R/G) and they've gone cold recently (3.8 R/G L5, multiple cold bats). The +129 line on Cincinnati is attractive positive value for a team with the elite starter. The Reds' offense vs RHP (.226/.690) is a concern, but Burns' gap over Castillo is so wide that this is a clear lean.