MLB Picks · September 5, 2026
Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Strong Lean
Pirates ML
-191
74
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Los Angeles Angels · Away
Yusei Kikuchi (LHP)
Pittsburgh Pirates · Home
Braxton Ashcraft (RHP)
AI Analysis
Kikuchi has been one of the worst starters in baseball (5.65 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 0-5 in 43 IP), while Ashcraft has been excellent (3.59 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 164 K in 160.1 IP, 14-5). The Angels are 1-9 in L10, on a L3 streak, scoring just 3.4 R/G, and their lineup has virtually no hot bats. The Pirates are 7-3 in L10 with a W2 streak and feature a solid offense (OPS .739). The -191 price is steep but this is one of the cleaner edges on the slate across pitching and team quality.
Concerns
- •Price of -191 carries significant negative value
- •Pirates offense vs LHP drops to .683 OPS (vs .755 vs RHP)
- •Pirates recent run scoring has cooled (3.9 R/G in L10)
- •Kikuchi has shown strikeout ability (43 K in 43 IP)
Factor Breakdown