MLB Picks · July 21, 2026
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies
Strong Lean
Phillies ML
-110
72
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Los Angeles Dodgers · Away
Justin Wrobleski (LHP)
Philadelphia Phillies · Home
Zack Wheeler (RHP)
AI Analysis
Zack Wheeler is the best pitcher on the board in this game — a 2.13 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 108 K over 93 IP is an ace-level performance. The Phillies are 10-1 with Wheeler and he provides a massive pitching edge. While the Dodgers have the better offense overall, LAD's lineup has gone cold recently (4.1 R/G in L5, multiple cold stars in Ohtani, Freeman, and Hernandez). PHI is 6-4 in L10 and the even -110 line represents solid value on Wheeler. The key split concern is that PHI hits worse vs LHP, but Wheeler's edge over Wrobleski is dominant.
Concerns
- •PHI lineup hits worse vs LHP (.228/.685 vs .240/.716 vs RHP) — Wrobleski is LHP
- •LAD has the superior offense on paper (.773 OPS, 5.19 R/G) despite recent cold streak
- •LAD vs RHP split is strong (.266/.786), Wheeler will face a capable lineup
- •Harper, Marsh, Bohm all cold recently for PHI
Factor Breakdown