MLB Picks · September 19, 2026
New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Strong Lean
New York Yankees ML
-167
81
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
New York Yankees · Away
Cam Schlittler (RHP)
Arizona Diamondbacks · Home
Brandon Pfaadt (RHP)
AI Analysis
Cam Schlittler is having one of the best pitching seasons in baseball (ERA 1.95, WHIP 0.90, 228 Ks in 184.2 IP, 14-6) — an overwhelming pitching advantage over Pfaadt (ERA 3.77, WHIP 1.17). The Yankees are a 89-win club with elite recent form (8-2 L10, 6.0 R/G L5) and multiple hot bats — Rice (🔥, .897 OPS), Bellinger (🔥), Goldschmidt (🔥). Arizona is on a 3-game losing streak, their offense hits RHP worse (.687 OPS vs .776 vs LHP), and Pfaadt is a clear step down. Even at -167, Schlittler's near-historic ERA warrants the play — this is the clearest pitching dominant edge on the slate.
Concerns
- •Yankees -167 carries slight negative line value
- •Arizona at home with Arenado (🔥), Moreno, and Carroll can produce
- •Yankees split vs RHP is weaker (.712 OPS vs .740 vs LHP) — both starters are RHP
- •Pfaadt has been decent — this isn't a complete mismatch on paper, just Schlittler is elite
Factor Breakdown