MLB Picks · September 5, 2026
New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres
Lean
Yankees ML
+109
67
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
New York Yankees · Away
Carlos Rodón (LHP)
San Diego Padres · Home
Robbie Ray (LHP)
AI Analysis
Both starters are LHP with similar profiles, but the Yankees offense is clearly superior (OPS .731, 5.06 R/G, 5.2 R/G in L10) with a lineup featuring multiple hot bats (Rice, Chisholm, Bellinger, Garcia Jr., Goldschmidt, Wells). Rodón has a solid 3.20 ERA in 59 IP. The Padres offense has gone cold (3.3 R/G in L10, .607 OPS in L5) and key bats are cold (Cronenworth, Song, Campusano). The Yankees hit .726 OPS vs LHP (favorable split) while San Diego hits .688 OPS vs LHP (slight negative). At +109, Yankees offer slight positive value with a better offense and comparable pitching.
Concerns
- •Rodón has only 59 IP — smaller sample than Ray (149 IP)
- •Padres home advantage at Petco Park (pitcher-friendly)
- •Padres are on W1 streak and Tatis/Machado/France are capable
- •Ray's 3.14 ERA and 126 K in 149 IP suggests consistent performance
Factor Breakdown