MLB Picks · July 9, 2026

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays

Strong Lean
Rays ML
-150
80
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
New York Yankees · Away
Paul Blackburn (RHP)
Tampa Bay Rays · Home
Drew Rasmussen (RHP)
AI Analysis

Drew Rasmussen is one of the best starters in this slate (ERA 2.78, WHIP 0.90, 96 K in 97 IP) and faces a Yankees lineup that is historically cold — 3.1 R/G in the last 10 games with a .171 AVG and .518 OPS. New York has 6 hitters showing ❄️ cold indicators and are on a 2-game losing streak with a brutal L10 of 2-8. Tampa Bay at 54-36 is the best team on this slate, playing at home, on a W2 streak with a 7-3 L10. While Blackburn has been solid (ERA 2.22), his small IP sample (44.2 IP) and the scale of Tampa's advantages make the Rays a strong lean despite the -150 price.

Concerns
  • Blackburn has a low ERA but only 44.2 IP — small sample
  • -150 price slightly negative on value scale
  • Rays offense is not elite (4.51 R/G) — relies heavily on Caminero/Yandy/Aranda
  • Fortes and Williamson ❄️ in TB lineup
Factor Breakdown
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