Pittsburgh's offense has been exceptional recently (6.7 R/G over L10, .297/.861 in last 5) and their lineup is hitting .269/.789 vs RHP — a real edge against Bryce Elder (ERA 4.01). However, Mitch Keller's ERA of 5.02 and WHIP of 1.31 give this no pitching gate advantage, and Atlanta's lineup has several cold hitters dampening their upside. The -110 flat line on both sides reflects a true toss-up. With Keller's shaky numbers and Atlanta's cold bats canceling out PIT's hot form, this is a pass.

This matchup pits a solid Wacha (ERA 3.45, WHIP 1.16) against a struggling Manaea (ERA 4.76, WHIP 1.35), giving KC a modest pitching edge. However, the Mets are a heavy -149 favorite despite being only 39-54 on the season and having a weak offense (.684 OPS, 4.16 R/G). KC's lineup is mediocre but Wacha's numbers are appreciably better. The line doesn't reflect value on either side clearly — KC's record (38-55) makes a true play risky even at +124.

Drew Rasmussen is one of the best starters in this slate (ERA 2.78, WHIP 0.90, 96 K in 97 IP) and faces a Yankees lineup that is historically cold — 3.1 R/G in the last 10 games with a .171 AVG and .518 OPS. New York has 6 hitters showing ❄️ cold indicators and are on a 2-game losing streak with a brutal L10 of 2-8. Tampa Bay at 54-36 is the best team on this slate, playing at home, on a W2 streak with a 7-3 L10. While Blackburn has been solid (ERA 2.22), his small IP sample (44.2 IP) and the scale of Tampa's advantages make the Rays a strong lean despite the -150 price.

David Peterson's ERA of 6.75 and WHIP of 1.67 is alarming, but Baltimore's offense hits poorly vs LHP (.230/.676) and is in terrible recent form (4.0 R/G over L10, 3-7 L10, L3 losing streak). The Cubs counter with a scorching offense — 6.8 R/G in L10, 8-2 record, and multiple hot hitters including Pete Crow-Armstrong and Conforto. Trevor Rogers (ERA 4.70, WHIP 1.32) is also below average. The Cubs' offensive superiority and superior recent form override Peterson's struggles, and +104 provides slight positive value.

Gavin Williams brings elite strikeout numbers (123 K in 106.1 IP) and a solid ERA of 3.89 to face a Twins lineup hitting .258/.766 vs RHP — one of the better splits on the slate. Minnesota has been hot (7-3 L10, W4 streak) but Ober (ERA 4.59) is not a strong arm against Cleveland. The Guardians' offense is the weakest on the slate (.229 AVG, 3.96 R/G) and they're in a 4-game losing skid. Williams gives CLE a pitching edge, but at -131 the price isn't compelling given the offensive deficiency.

Boston's pitcher Patrick Sandoval has no listed ERA/WHIP/IP, making a reliable pitching evaluation impossible. The Red Sox are on a W5 streak and hit .266/.773 vs LHP — a genuine edge against Anthony Kay. However, the pitching unknown is too significant to commit to a play. Kay (ERA 4.29, WHIP 1.39) is below average and CWS's recent form is mediocre (4-6 L10). The -120 line on CWS seems mispriced given the unknowns on BOS's starter, but without Sandoval's numbers, this is a pass.

Detroit carries a 7-3 L10 record and a W4 streak, scoring 5.8 R/G in their last 10 games. The Athletics are in freefall — 1-9 in L10, L5 losing streak, scoring just 3.5 R/G over that span with multiple cold hitters. Jack Perkins (ERA 6.75, WHIP 1.45) is a severe pitching liability. Framber Valdez (ERA 4.29) is not sharp but is markedly better than Perkins, and Detroit's lineup has genuine pop (Greene, Dingler, McGonigle). The -136 line is acceptable given Oakland's total collapse.

Bryce Miller is having an exceptional season (ERA 1.71, WHIP 0.66) and gives Seattle a significant pitching edge, but Miami's offense is genuinely dangerous — 6.8 R/G in their last 10, a 7-3 L10 record, W5 streak, and a lineup on fire with 6 hitters showing 🔥 hot indicators. Seattle's offense is cold (.651 OPS, 4.3 R/G L10) with multiple cold hitters. Miami's Junk (ERA 4.80) is a concern, but at +105 for Marlins the value slightly favors them given their hot form. Miller's elite ERA is real but in limited innings (52.2 IP). The clash between Miller's dominance and Miami's white-hot offense makes this too risky to call confidently.

Jesús Luzardo (ERA 3.75, WHIP 1.27, 125 K in 103.1 IP) is a legitimate ace-caliber arm facing a Cincinnati lineup that hits .244/.777 vs LHP — a decent split, but undermined by cold hitters like McLain (❄️) and a team that's 3-7 in L10. Brady Singer's ERA of 5.03 and WHIP of 1.54 are poor, and Philadelphia's lineup, anchored by Schwarber (32 HR, .945 OPS), Harper (.880 OPS), and hot Trea Turner, has real upside. The -163 price is in the negative value range, but the pitching and offensive edges are genuine. Lean Phillies with moderate confidence.

Milwaukee is the class of this slate at 58-34 (.630) and sends Logan Henderson (ERA 2.74 in limited work, 30 K in 23 IP) to face a Cardinals lineup hitting .243/.716 vs RHP — modest. Andre Pallante (ERA 3.60, WHIP 1.22) is solid but Milwaukee's offense (.734 OPS, 5.09 R/G, multiple hot hitters) and superior pitching depth should dominate. Henderson's small sample is a concern, but the overall team quality gap is significant. At -136 the price is acceptable given Milwaukee's standing.

Nathan Eovaldi (ERA 4.02, WHIP 1.17, 110 K in 105.1 IP) is the better starter in this matchup, but Texas's offense has been modest (4.09 R/G, 4.6 R/G L10) and neither team is particularly hot. Reid Detmers (ERA 4.13, WHIP 1.11, 117 K) is actually a fairly comparable arm to Eovaldi. The Angels at 37-56 are a poor team, but Detmers's strikeout rate and WHIP are solid. At -142 for Texas, the value isn't there given the relatively even pitching matchup and mediocre Rangers offense.

Both starters are struggling badly — Kelly (ERA 5.71, WHIP 1.56) and Canning (ERA 6.71, WHIP 1.61) represent one of the worst pitching matchups on the slate. Neither clears the pitching gate. Arizona's offense has been cold (4.1 R/G L10, .223 AVG L10) and hits only .223/.659 vs RHP — a major concern against Canning. San Diego's offense is also weak (.674 OPS, 3.93 R/G) and they're 3-7 in L10. This is a low-quality game with no identifiable edge.

San Francisco's starter is TBD, making a proper pitching evaluation impossible and therefore failing the pitching gate by default. Colorado has been surprisingly hot offensively (7.0 R/G in L10, .277/.860) with multiple hot hitters, but their team ERA of 5.46 and Feltner's modest numbers are concerns. The Giants' lineup has quality pieces (Arraez, Devers, Ramos) but their recent form has been mediocre (4-6 L10, L2 streak). Without knowing SF's starter, this cannot be evaluated responsibly.

MLB Picks — July 9, 2026

Strong Leans

NYY @ TB

MIL @ STL

Leans

CHC @ BAL

ATH @ DET

PHI @ CIN

Passes

ATL @ PIT

KC @ NYM

CLE @ MIN

BOS @ CWS

SEA @ MIA

LAA @ TEX

AZ @ SD

COL @ SF