MLB Picks · September 19, 2026
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets
Lean
New York Mets ML
-125
63
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Philadelphia Phillies · Away
Andrew Painter (RHP)
New York Mets · Home
Christian Scott (RHP)
AI Analysis
Christian Scott (ERA 3.76, WHIP 1.26, 127 Ks in 105.1 IP) presents a clear pitching edge over Andrew Painter (ERA 5.54, WHIP 1.44, 3-9 W-L) who has been one of the worst starters in the NL this season. The Mets' L5 offense has been clicking (5.1 R/G) with Ewing and Baty both hot, and Juan Soto (.920 OPS) anchors a dangerous middle of the order. Painter's numbers are bad enough to warrant fading despite Philadelphia's stronger season record. The Mets at home as moderate favorites is supportable, though their overall season record (70-84) is a concern.
Concerns
- •Mets are 70-84 on the season — poor overall team quality
- •Phillies offense is legitimate (Harper .879 OPS, Schwarber 45 HR) despite cold recent form
- •Phillies L10 only 4-6, multiple ❄️ hitters
- •Scott has limited IP (105.1) — possible bullpen exposure late
Factor Breakdown