MLB Picks · September 5, 2026
San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets
Lean
Mets ML
-167
63
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
San Francisco Giants · Away
Anthony Molina (RHP)
New York Mets · Home
Zac Thornton (LHP)
AI Analysis
Zac Thornton has been solid with a 2.93 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 61.1 innings, giving the Mets a clear pitching edge. The Giants offense struggles against LHP (.664 OPS vs LHP vs .736 vs RHP), a significant split disadvantage, and several key bats are ice cold (Lee, Basabe). Molina has only 14.1 IP of sample — tiny track record — while the Mets have won 2 straight and hold a meaningful RA/G advantage (3.06 vs 3.76). Giants are 58-84 and one of the worst teams in baseball; the -167 price is steep but the lean is clear.
Concerns
- •Molina's ERA (3.77) is encouraging but built on just 14.1 IP — tiny sample
- •Mets offense has cooled in the L10 (4.1 R/G vs 4.9 season R/G)
- •Multiple Mets hot hitters (Soto, Alvarez) are cold in the L14
- •Price at -167 carries slight negative value
Factor Breakdown