MLB Picks · August 14, 2026
St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs
Strong Lean
Cubs ML
-181
75
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
St. Louis Cardinals · Away
Matthew Liberatore (LHP)
Chicago Cubs · Home
Clay Holmes (RHP)
AI Analysis
Clay Holmes has been excellent in 2026 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, providing a clear pitching edge over Liberatore (5.15 ERA, 1.52 WHIP). The Cubs lineup hits .270/.806 vs LHP — a significant split advantage against Liberatore. Chicago is 8-2 in their last 10, scoring 6.4 R/G over their last 10 games, and multiple key hitters (Bregman, Hoerner) are hot. The price at -181 is notable but the matchup edges are real and multi-layered.
Concerns
- •Cubs on a 1-game losing streak
- •Liberatore's price at -181 reduces moneyline value
- •Holmes has only 56.2 IP — limited track record
- •Conforto cold recently, Happ cold recently
Factor Breakdown