MLB Picks · September 21, 2026
Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles
Lean
Blue Jays ML
-104
65
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Toronto Blue Jays · Away
Trey Yesavage (RHP)
Baltimore Orioles · Home
Shane Baz (RHP)
AI Analysis
Trey Yesavage holds a meaningful pitching edge over Shane Baz — his ERA (3.65 vs 4.11) and WHIP (1.14 vs 1.35) are both notably superior, and Baz's 6-15 record reflects a rough season. Toronto's offense is hitting .257/.711 vs RHP, slightly better than Baltimore's .234/.711 against RHP, and the Blue Jays carry multiple hot bats (Okamoto, Lukes, Straw, Kirk) into this game. Baltimore has lost 3 straight and shows several cold hitters down the lineup. The -104 line on Toronto is near neutral value, making this a palatable lean on the better pitcher with the hotter offense.
Concerns
- •Toronto is 4-6 over their last 10 games
- •Baz has 173 IP and may be fatigued but data shows he's been consistent
- •Baz is home, which typically adds a small advantage
- •Several TOR hitters (Clement, Valenzuela) are cold recently
- •Pete Alonso (.858 OPS, 38 HR) is a massive individual threat for BAL
Factor Breakdown