MLB Picks · August 14, 2026
Washington Nationals vs New York Mets
Strong Lean🐶 Dog of the Day
Nationals ML
+105
74
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Washington Nationals · Away
Andrew Alvarez (LHP)
New York Mets · Home
Robert Stock (RHP)
AI Analysis
Robert Stock is a disaster waiting to happen: 10.13 ERA, 2.13 WHIP in 8 IP — these numbers are catastrophic even in a small sample. Washington's offense averages 5.38 R/G and posts a .769 team OPS, one of the better marks in the league. Alvarez (3.76 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) is average but vastly superior to Stock. At +105, the Nationals represent genuine moneyline value given the massive pitching gap favoring the visitor.
Concerns
- •Alvarez's WHIP (1.40) is elevated — command issues
- •Washington has multiple cold hitters (CJ Abrams cold in L14, Nuñez ice cold)
- •Mets are 6-4 in last 10 and have scored 5.3 R/G in that span
- •Mets lineup has decent vs LHP splits (.239/.708)
Factor Breakdown