World Cup Picks — July 15, 2026

Argentina enter this semifinal with a perfect five-win run and the tournament pedigree of reigning world champions, giving them a marginal edge over an England side that dropped points in their most recent match. The factors across the board are remarkably close, reflecting two elite squads with comparable tactical identities and no glaring structural weakness on either side that the opponent can reliably exploit. With a vig-removed draw probability sitting at 33.2%, nearly one in three outcomes at 90 minutes results in a losing moneyline ticket regardless of which side you back, making this matchup unplayable on the moneyline.