WNBA Picks — September 29, 2026

Las Vegas holds a massive 21-point offensive rating advantage (123 vs 102) and allows significantly fewer points per game defensively (86 vs 93 allowed by Indiana), representing a structural edge on both ends of the floor. The Aces' rim FG% on offense (59.5%) is a full 14.6 points higher than Indiana's (44.9%), while both teams allow the same 52.0% at the rim, giving Las Vegas a dominant shot quality net differential. The travel disadvantage (1,591 miles) and home court for Indiana are real concerns but do not overcome the magnitude of the efficiency and shot quality gaps.

New York holds a massive offensive rating advantage (110 vs 90), representing a 20-point gap per 100 possessions that is the dominant factor in this analysis. The Liberty also hold a rim FG% offense edge (50.9% vs 41.9%) while both teams allow identical rim FG% on defense (52.0%), giving New York a clear shot quality advantage. The home-court edge and Minnesota's 1,019-mile travel further support the Liberty at a plus-money price.