Joey Cantillo (ERA 3.05, WHIP 1.32) is one of the better value arms in the AL, and Cleveland's pitching infrastructure (team ERA 3.63, RA/G 3.91) significantly outpaces Washington's. The Guardians are 32-24 with an 8-2 L10, while Cavalli (WHIP 1.43) has been inconsistent. Washington's lineup hits LHP well (.265/.767 vs LHP) and features hot bats in James Wood and CJ Abrams, which tempers confidence. However, Cleveland's L5 offense slump (.199 AVG) is a concern, and Rocchio is the lone consistent hot bat. Still, superior pitching and overall record favor Cleveland at home.

Tampa Bay at 34-17 is one of the best teams in baseball, and Griffin Jax (ERA 3.54) is a solid arm. Shane Baz has been poor (ERA 4.87, WHIP 1.45, 1-5 record) and Baltimore's pitching staff is a liability (team ERA 4.80, RA/G 5.41). The Rays' offense features Yandy Diaz (.314/.893), Caminero (.846 OPS), and Aranda (.833 OPS), all consistent producers vs RHP. Baltimore is 24-30 and on a broader slump, while Tampa Bay has the talent edge at nearly every position. The Rays' L5 (4 R/G) and superior team metrics point to moneyline value despite the road setting.

Both teams are in the lower tier of the AL with losing records and anemic offenses. Montero has a strong ERA (3.83) and exceptional WHIP (1.01), but Detroit's L5 offense (2.8 R/G, .189 AVG) is one of the worst in the data set. The Angels are on a 3-game win streak but Kochanowicz (ERA 4.55) is mediocre, and their key bats Adell and Soler are both ice-cold. Colt Keith is also cold for Detroit. Both offenses are struggling, and there is no compelling edge for either side.

This is among the clearest edges of the slate. Braxton Ashcraft has been excellent (ERA 2.89, WHIP 1.03, 65 K in 62.1 IP), while the Cubs' probable Jordan Wicks has no available stats — a significant unknown on an already-struggling rotation. Chicago is on a 9-game losing streak with an abysmal L5 offense (1.6 R/G, .148 AVG, .492 OPS) — one of the worst recent offensive lines on the board. Pittsburgh's offense (.905 OPS from Lowe, Cruz and Reynolds solid) should be able to support Ashcraft at home. PNC Park is a pitcher-friendly venue that further suits Ashcraft's profile.

Spencer Strider is one of the most dominant pitchers when healthy (ERA 3.00, 27 K in 21 IP, 1.14 WHIP), and Atlanta is the best team on the slate at 36-18 with a dominant team ERA (3.04). Boston's lineup struggles vs RHP (.229/.664) and Suarez, while excellent (ERA 2.40), faces a Braves offense that is the deepest on the slate. Boston's lineup has significant cold spots with Durbin (.163, .479 OPS) and Duran (.193). Atlanta's overall quality — record, pitching depth, offense — represents value even after their 2-game skid and key hitters (Olson, Albies, Harris) cooling off.

Both teams are near .500 and both starting pitchers have contrasting profiles. Fisher has been sharp in limited work (ERA 2.73, WHIP 1.01, 29.2 IP) while Alcantara (ERA 4.00, WHIP 1.28) is serviceable. Miami's recent form is solid (W4 streak, 4.2 R/G L5) and their top contact hitters (Edwards .311, Lopez .332) are producing. Toronto's lineup has notable cold spots (Guerrero Jr., Okamoto ❄️). However, Fisher's small sample limits confidence and the Jays' home advantage at Rogers Centre is modest. The matchup doesn't offer a decisive edge.

Chase Burns is having a Cy Young-caliber season (ERA 1.83, WHIP 0.95, 64 K in 59 IP) and faces a Mets offense that is one of the coldest on the slate (L5: 1.2 R/G, .169 AVG, .472 OPS — worst in the data). The Mets' starter is TBD, meaning Cincinnati likely faces a bullpen game or a weak fill-in. De La Cruz (.863 OPS, .310 L14), Stewart (.831 OPS), and Steer (.327 L14 🔥) give Cincinnati real firepower. The Mets are 22-32 and on a 4-game losing streak. This is one of the most lopsided pitching matchups of the day.

Joe Ryan is one of the better pitchers on this slate (ERA 3.02, WHIP 0.97, 61 K in 56.2 IP), and Minnesota's L5 offense has been productive (4.6 R/G, .748 OPS) behind Buxton's monster season (.901 OPS, 16 HR). Burke is adequate (ERA 4.08) but not in Ryan's tier. The White Sox, despite their surprising .509 record, have a weaker pitching infrastructure and their offense hits Ryan's handedness with middling splits vs RHP. Minnesota has a slight edge in pitching quality and recent offensive momentum despite the road setting.

Cam Schlittler is having a remarkable season (ERA 1.50, WHIP 0.86, 75 K in 66 IP) and faces a Kansas City offense that hits RHP at .242/.700 — not impressive. Bailey Falter is an absolute disaster in his limited appearances (ERA 9.82, WHIP 2.86 in 7.1 IP), representing one of the worst starter matchups on the board. The Yankees are 32-22 with a deep lineup that hits LHP well (.243/.788 vs LHP). Jazz Chisholm Jr. is scorching (.367 L14 🔥) and Grisham is heating up. New York's pitching is elite (team ERA 3.24) and this is as close to a one-sided pitching matchup as you'll find today.

Kyle Harrison is arguably the best pitcher on this slate outside of Burns and Schlittler (ERA 1.77, WHIP 1.07, 59 K in 45.2 IP). Milwaukee is 31-20 with an excellent team ERA (3.25) and their offense hits RHP well (.258/.726 vs RHP). William Contreras (.352 L14 🔥) and Jake Bauers (.373 L14 🔥) are two of the hottest hitters in the data. St. Louis' L5 offense is cold (3.4 R/G, .625 OPS) and their key bat Masyn Winn is ice cold. McGreevy is solid (ERA 2.40) but Harrison's strikeout rate and ERA give Milwaukee the clear pitching edge at home.

Jason Alexander has been terrible (ERA 7.30, WHIP 1.70 in 12.1 IP) and the Astros' top bats Yordan Alvarez and Christian Walker are both ice cold (❄️). Jack Leiter (ERA 4.61, 1-4) is also struggling and Texas is on a 4-game skid with a cold L5 offense. Houston's recent form (W4 streak, 5 R/G L5) looks appealing, but Alexander cannot be trusted against a Rangers lineup that's at least serviceable. There's no clean side to take — this is a bad pitchers' matchup with cold key bats on both sides.

Emerson Hancock has been sharp (ERA 3.07, WHIP 1.06, 60 K in 58.2 IP) and Seattle's offense vs RHP is notably better (.242/.737 vs RHP) than Severino's opponents typically face. Severino (ERA 4.23, WHIP 1.44, 2-5) has been inconsistent, and the Athletics' L5 offense (2.6 R/G, .635 OPS) is very cold. Randy Arozarena is scorching (.360 L14 🔥) and Nick Kurtz for Oakland is also hot (.370 L14 🔥), but Seattle's pitching edge and Severino's struggles tilt this toward the Mariners, despite Seattle's own inconsistency.

Randy Vásquez (ERA 2.96, WHIP 1.19, 5-2) has been one of the best value arms in the NL this season and Petco Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in baseball. Aaron Nola has struggled badly (ERA 6.04, WHIP 1.56) and Philadelphia's L5 offense is ice-cold (2.2 R/G, .172 AVG, .544 OPS). While San Diego's lineup is also cold in L5 (.189 AVG, many ❄️ hitters), the pitching and park factor tilt heavily toward the Padres. Nola's poor ERA vs a solid, pitcher-friendly home starter is the key edge here.

Eduardo Rodriguez has been outstanding (ERA 2.24, WHIP 1.19, 43 K in 60.1 IP) while Tyler Mahle is one of the worst starters on this slate (ERA 6.10, WHIP 1.57, 1-6). Arizona is 29-24 on an 8-2 L10 and W3 streak, featuring two of the hottest hitters in baseball: Corbin Carroll (.304/.974 OPS, .396 L14 🔥) and Ketel Marte (.275/.797, .439 L14 🔥🔥). SF's offense has been better recently (5.4 R/G L5) but they are 22-32 overall and face a LHP with an elite ERA. The D-backs have all the edges — superior pitcher, red-hot bats, and superior record.

The Dodgers are 34-20 on an 8-2 L10 and W3 streak with the best team OPS (.771) and lowest RA/G (3.17) among all home teams today. Kyle Freeland has been terrible (ERA 7.04, WHIP 1.70, 1-5) and Colorado is 20-35 on a 3-game losing skid with a cold L5 offense (2.4 R/G). Even though Eric Lauer has also struggled (ERA 6.69), the Dodgers' lineup is elite vs LHP (.251/.770) with Ohtani (.333 L14 🔥), Hernández (.373 L14 🔥), and the deepest lineup in the data. Colorado's rotation piece is one of the worst on the slate — this is a dominant team vs a cellar-dweller in a matchup that strongly favors LA.

MLB Picks — May 26, 2026

Strong Leans

CHC @ PIT

ATL @ BOS

CIN @ NYM

NYY @ KC

STL @ MIL

AZ @ SF

COL @ LAD

Leans

WSH @ CLE

TB @ BAL

MIN @ CWS

SEA @ ATH

PHI @ SD

Passes

LAA @ DET

MIA @ TOR

HOU @ TEX